Sprott is a Toronto-headquartered asset manager specializing in precious metals and critical materials (NYSE/TSX: SII), tracing its roots to Sprott Securities founded by Eric Sprott in 1981 and now led by CEO Whitney George. It runs physical gold, silver and uranium trusts, ETFs, active strategies and resource lending, with about $65bn in AUM. The Insights column carries monthly commentaries and white papers on uranium, gold, silver, copper and critical materials by Paul Wong, Jacob White and John Hathaway (ex-Tocqueville gold manager) — note the house's structurally bullish commodity stance, as it sells the corresponding trusts and ETFs.
This report explains how nickel, once used mainly for stainless steel, is now crucial for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Despite a current oversupply and price drop, the report argues that long-term demand from EVs and energy storage will outpace supply, making nickel miners attractive. For everyday investors, that means potential upside but also risks like Indonesia's dominant supply and policy shifts. Worth a read because the EV boom isn't going away, and nickel prices could rebound.
Nickel, with its strong magnetic properties and electrical conductivity, has evolved from an industrial metal for stainless steel into a critical mineral for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. In 2023, global EV sales grew by 35%, with the U.S. surpassing 1 million units (up 52% year-over-year), and g
This chapter focuses on nickel’s transformation from a traditional industrial metal for stainless steel into a critical mineral for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The report argues that as countries push for EV adoption and manufacturers expand capacity, nickel’s supply-demand dynamics and pricing logic are shifting from following industrial cycles to being deeply tied to the EV market, and it views this as a long-term trend despite short-term volatility.
The author’s core investment thesis is: Despite the current oversupply in the nickel market, long-term fundamentals are strong, and nickel miners will offer attractive investment opportunities. The counterintuitive judgment lies in the report’s belief that the nickel price decline in 2023, driven by weak EV sales in China and a surge in Indonesian supply, has already rebounded in 2024, and the supply-demand imbalance is expected to reverse in the future.
1. EV Sales Growth Drives Demand Structure Shift: Global EV sales grew 35% in 2023, with the US surpassing 1 million units (up 52% year-over-year). Worldwide, 14 million new EVs were added, bringing the total to 40 million. It is projected that half of all new cars will be electric by 2035. Nickel-dominant batteries offer higher energy density and lighter weight, improving range and charging speed, and high-nickel battery designs are expected to dominate the market.
2. Demand Structure Shifts from Stainless Steel to Batteries: Batteries currently account for about one-third of Class 1 nickel demand, and this share is expected to exceed 50% by 2027. By 2040, EV batteries will become the largest end-user of nickel.
3. Other Energy Transition Demands: Energy storage systems (the market could reach $150 billion by 2030), hydrogen production, geothermal, wind, and nuclear power will all drive nickel demand.
4. Supply-Side Changes: Indonesia’s output surged from 0.76 million tons in 2020 to 1.8 million tons in 2023, accounting for half of global supply, and it is expected to contribute over 75% of new supply from 2022 to 2029. The US has about 30 battery factories under construction or in operation, but very few domestic nickel mines.
5. Price and Supply-Demand Outlook: Nickel prices fell in 2023 due to slowing EV sales in China and oversupply from Indonesia, but rebounded in 2024. The report argues that the supply-demand imbalance will reverse (see Figure 5).
Comparative Data Table:
| Indicator | 2020 | 2023 | 2027 (Forecast) | 2030 (Forecast) | 2035 (Forecast) | 2040 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia nickel output (million tons) | 0.76 | 1.8 | - | - | - | - |
| Batteries’ share of Class 1 nickel demand | - | ~33% | >50% | - | - | - |
| Global EV sales (million units) | - | 40 (cumulative) | - | - | Half of new cars are electric | - |
| Energy storage system market size (billion USD) | - | - | - | 150 | - | - |