Sprott is a Toronto-headquartered asset manager specializing in precious metals and critical materials (NYSE/TSX: SII), tracing its roots to Sprott Securities founded by Eric Sprott in 1981 and now led by CEO Whitney George. It runs physical gold, silver and uranium trusts, ETFs, active strategies and resource lending, with about $65bn in AUM. The Insights column carries monthly commentaries and white papers on uranium, gold, silver, copper and critical materials by Paul Wong, Jacob White and John Hathaway (ex-Tocqueville gold manager) — note the house's structurally bullish commodity stance, as it sells the corresponding trusts and ETFs.
This report says lithium prices are up 25% in 2025 as the market turns bullish. Beyond EVs, data centers (like Google's backup batteries) are creating new demand. Oil giants and governments are investing in lithium mines, signaling long-term support. For regular investors, look at North American and European lithium developers, but watch out: China controls 60% of refining, so policy shifts can cause swings. Worth reading because lithium demand is diversifying beyond EVs.
Sprott’s report indicates that lithium market sentiment turned bullish in 2025, with lithium carbonate prices rising 25.73% year-to-date as of November 30, driven by electric vehicle demand, declining inventories, and tighter Chinese regulations (such as CATL shutting down major lithium mines). The
This chapter focuses on the bullish sentiment shift in the lithium market in 2025, analyzing the drivers of the price rebound, new demand growth areas (data centers), and strategic investment trends amid global supply chain restructuring. The report argues that despite uncertainties in U.S. policy, price stability, industry consolidation, and Chinese stimulus measures should support long-term growth prospects.
The author’s central judgment is that the lithium market has turned bullish in 2025, and the market surplus may shift to a deficit sooner than expected. The counterintuitive point is that, despite headwinds from U.S. electric vehicle policy, the U.S. government has explicitly designated lithium as a critical resource by investing in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project (holding a 5% stake), sending a strong signal to the market. Additionally, the entry of oil majors (Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton) into the lithium industry marks a turning point.
1. Price Rebound: As of November 30, 2025, lithium carbonate prices have risen 25.73% year-to-date. Drivers of the rebound include strong demand growth, inventory reductions, and regulatory tightening (CATL shutting down a major Chinese lithium mine, government restrictions on low-price sales).
2. Demand Structure Changes:
3. Global Supply Landscape:
| Indicator | Data |
|---|---|
| Top three global lithium producers | Australia, Chile, China |
| China’s share of global lithium refining | 60% |
| Number of U.S. battery gigafactories (2019) | 2 (plus 2 planned) |
| Number of U.S. battery gigafactories (2025) | 34 (planned/under construction/operational) |
| Committed investments by automakers and battery manufacturers | Nearly $112 billion |
| Annual capacity of all factories at full production (2030) | 1,200 GWh (enough to support ~18 million EVs) |
| Global EV sales forecast for 2025 | Over 20 million units, ~25% of new car sales |
| Global EV sales growth rate for 2025 | 27% year-over-year |
4. Strategic Investment Cases:
| Company/Asset | Role | Key Data | Bullish/Bearish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium Americas (Thacker Pass) | One of the largest U.S. lithium projects | U.S. government holds 5% stake | Bullish (government endorsement) |
| CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd.) | Chinese lithium mine operator | Shut down major Chinese lithium mine, driving price increases | Neutral (event-driven) |
| Chevron / Exxon Mobil | Oil majors entering lithium industry | Acquired mineral rights in Smackover Formation | Bullish (capital + operational capability) |
| Halliburton | Oilfield services firm transitioning to lithium production | Plans geothermal lithium mine in Texas, 83,500-ton target by 2029 | Bullish |
| Vulcan Energy Resources | European lithium developer | Received €104 million in German funding | Bullish (policy support) |
| Major user of lithium-ion batteries in data centers | Uses over 100 million lithium-ion batteries in global data centers | Bullish (demand driver) |
This chapter discusses the current state of the lithium market following the extreme price peak in 2022. The report argues that while historically high price levels are unlikely to recur, the market has moved beyond the violent swings caused by supply-demand imbalances and entered a new phase characterized by improving fundamentals and inventory normalization. The explosive growth in data center demand is emerging as a new support for lithium prices.
The author’s core judgment is that the lithium market has entered a new chapter driven by strategic investment and innovation, with lithium playing a long-term core role across electric vehicles, defense, and data centers. The counterintuitive point is that the report believes demand growth from the non-traditional data center sector is providing structural support for lithium prices, rather than relying solely on electric vehicles as the single driver.
This chapter does not name specific companies, but in the context of the report, the following assets are related to data center lithium demand: