Paul’s Notes #15 — Friday September 11th, 2026
Rick Rule is a veteran natural-resource investor who began in 1974, built Global Resource Investments (sold to Sprott in 2011), and led Sprott U.S. Holdings until retiring in 2021 to found Rule Investment Media. His free Substack covers contrarian speculation in mining, energy and critical minerals — gold, silver, copper, nickel, royalty and streaming companies — framed by geopolitical risk.
In plain words
This report is very bullish on copper, saying structural shortages are worsening and prices will keep rising. It highlights three stocks: Talon Metals (TLO) surged 34% after drilling a very high-grade nickel-copper zone in Minnesota; Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) has a copper project in Congo with grades four times higher than Chile's average; and Vale (VALE) scrapped its copper unit IPO due to political pushback in Brazil, but rising copper prices make its copper business more valuable.
At a Glance
One-sentence summary: The author holds an extremely bullish view on the copper market, arguing that structural deficits are intensifying, with a focus on high-grade projects and industry collaboration trends. [Bullish]
- Copper prices broke through $6.75/lb to hit a record high, with Bernstein forecasting a copper deficit exceeding 12 million tonnes per year by 2040.
- Talon Metals (TSX:TLO) intersected an extremely high-grade intercept of 27.39% NiEq, sending its share price up 34% in a single day.
- Vale (NYSE:VALE) abandoned the VBM IPO due to political headwinds, but rising copper prices have significantly enhanced the value of its copper business.
- Governments in Ghana, Turkey, Ecuador, and other countries have raised resource rents amid high metal prices, increasing country-specific risks in mining.
- Collective Mining (NASDAQ:CNL) saw its share price fall approximately 10% after releasing its maiden resource estimate, though 40,000 meters of drilling remain unaccounted for.
Copper Hits Record High as Structural Deficit Deepens
Copper broke through $6.75/lb (~$14,500/t) this week, setting a new all-time high. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, reported July output of just 403,424 tonnes, the lowest for that month since 2011, primarily due to declining ore grades, maintenance, and extreme weather. Bernstein forecasts the copper deficit will exceed 12 million tonnes per year by 2040.
High-Grade Projects Highlight Value: Ivanhoe & Talon
- Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN): The Western Forelands project in the DRC added 42 million tonnes of indicated resources at a grade of 2.66% copper, more than four times the average grade in Chile (0.6%).
- Talon Metals (TSX:TLO): Drill hole 562A at the Tamarack project in Minnesota intersected a 46.43-meter interval grading 27.39% NiEq (54.78% CuEq), containing high-grade nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals. The stock surged 34% in a single day following the news. The author's original quote: "When we named the Vault Zone, we didn’t realize quite how appropriate that name might become. To see Ni, Cu, Co, Pt, Pd & Au concentrated at these levels in the same rock is particularly significant." Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) acquired a 19.99% stake in TLO in 2025, while TLO also received LUN's Eagle mine and Humboldt mill; Jack Lundin purchased 57,000 shares at C$7.74 on August 21 (total C$441,000).
New Trend in Industry Collaboration: BHP & KGHM Sign MoU
BHP (LSE:BHP) signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Poland's KGHM Polska, establishing a framework for dialogue and exploring areas of mutual interest. The report argues that with a grim outlook for copper supply, miners are entering a new era of cooperation to consolidate strengths, compress costs, and increase production.
Vale Abandons VBM IPO; Copper Prices Could Change the Game
Vale (NYSE:VALE) abandoned its IPO plans for Vale Base Metals (VBM) due to domestic political resistance in Brazil. In 2024, Saudi Arabia's Manara Minerals acquired a 10% stake in VBM for $2.5 billion, implying a valuation of approximately $25 billion. The report notes that when Vale was privatized in 1997, Brazil retained veto power over strategic decisions through a "golden share," and the government could replicate this approach to resolve control issues. Another perspective: with copper prices rising from $4/lb when Manara invested to the current $6.75/lb, the copper business has become significantly more important to Vale — competitor BHP recently reported that copper became its largest revenue source for the first time.
Congratulations to Cabral Gold on First Pour
Cabral Gold (TSXV:CBR) completed its first gold pour during the commissioning phase of Phase 1 at the Cuiú Cuiú gold mine in Minas Gerais, Brazil, producing 1,130 ounces of gold. The target is to achieve commercial production by the end of 2026.
Government Tax Risk: Ghana, Turkey, Ecuador
High metal prices are prompting multiple governments to increase resource rent taxes:
- Ghana: Large-scale miners must sell 30% of their production as gold bars to the state-owned entity GoldBod at a 0.55% discount for domestic refining; exports of unrefined gold bars are banned from this month.
- Turkey: The gold royalty rate increases with the gold price; at around $5,000/oz, the rate reaches 30%. A 40% reduction is available if processing occurs at qualified domestic facilities (e.g., LBMA-accredited refineries).
- Ecuador: The tax authority is demanding Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG) pay $73 million in back taxes on 2023 production from the Fruta del Norte gold mine, plus a potential $81 million fine, totaling $154 million (excluding interest). The report notes that these country-specific risks are driving companies toward highly indebted Canada and the U.S., jurisdictions where the author believes rent-seeking behavior is unlikely to occur.
Appendix: Position Moves
| Position | Action | Key Data/Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) | Hold & Watch | Western Forelands adds 42Mt @ 2.66% Cu, grade 4x Chile's average |
| Talon Metals (TSX:TLO) | Hold & Watch | Tamarack project hits 27.39% NiEq interval; stock up 34%; Lundin Mining holds 19.99% |
| Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) | Hold & Watch | Acquired 19.99% of TLO, sold Eagle mine; Jack Lundin added shares |
| BHP (LSE:BHP) | Hold & Watch | Signed MoU with KGHM; copper becomes largest revenue source for first time |
| Vale (NYSE:VALE) | Hold & Watch | Abandoned VBM IPO due to political resistance; copper price rise boosts copper business importance |
| Cabral Gold (TSXV:CBR) | Hold & Watch | First pour of 1,130oz Au; targeting commercial production by end-2026 |
| Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG) | Hold & Watch | Ecuador tax claim of $154M (including fines) |
Colombia’s New President Adopts Pro-Mining Policy; Collective Mining Releases First Resource Estimate
Under Colombia’s new president’s pro-mining policy, the country may become a hot mining jurisdiction over the next four years. Collective Mining (NASDAQ:CNL), a participant in the 2026 Rule Symposium, has released the first resource estimate for the Apollo deposit at its Guayabales project in the department of Caldas: an indicated resource of 37 million tonnes at 2.17 g/t gold equivalent, containing 258,000 ounces; and an inferred resource of 48.2 million tonnes at 1.83 g/t, containing 283,000 ounces. The estimate is based on 265 drill holes totaling 114,520 meters of diamond drilling, with the majority of the resource amenable to open-pit mining. The company is accelerating environmental and technical studies, targeting submission of an environmental permit application in the second half of 2027.
A complicating factor for this resource is that gold accounts for only 50% of the calculated grade, with the remainder contributed by silver, copper, and tungsten, resulting in a wide range of gold equivalent calculations. Interestingly, the transaction valuations of Colombia’s two major producers, Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) and Mineros (TSX:MSA) (also participants in the 2026 Rule Symposium), trade at a significant discount compared to their North American peers of similar scale. With over 5 million ounces of resources, can CNL support its $1.6 billion market capitalization? The preliminary answer is “no”—CNL’s share price has fallen by approximately 10%, yet its market cap remains as high as $1.4 billion. However, CNL will continue to expand the Apollo project, with an additional 40,000 meters of drilling not yet included in this resource estimate, and plans to accelerate permitting, submitting an application in the second half of 2027.
Liberty Gold Releases Black Pine Feasibility Study with Strong Economic Metrics
Liberty Gold (TSXV:LGD) has released a feasibility study for its Black Pine gold project in Idaho, planning an open-pit heap leach operation with average annual production of 177,000 ounces over 16 years. The project, assuming a gold price of $3,250 per ounce and initial capital expenditure of $411 million, yields a post-tax net present value (5% discount rate) of $2.4 billion and an internal rate of return of 60%. Compared to the previous study, capital expenditure has increased by 26% (from $327 million), reserves have increased by 30% to 4.04 million ounces, and average annual production has risen 31% from 135,000 ounces to 177,000 ounces. All-in sustaining costs have increased 13% to $1,566 per ounce (previously $1,380 per ounce). The project is advancing through the FAST-41 permitting process, with a production decision expected in the first quarter of 2028.
Seabridge Gold Completes Key Power Terminal for KSM Project
Seabridge Gold (NYSE:SA) has made progress on its KSM copper-gold project in British Columbia, with the Treaty Creek terminal substantially completed and energized. Located approximately 2 kilometers from the KSM project entrance along Highway 37, the terminal provides access to BC Hydro power and is expected to be operational by November 2026. SA has invested over C$1.2 billion to date in advancing the KSM project.
Position Moves
| Ticker | Direction | Author's One-Sentence View | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) | Hold & Watch | High-grade project value stands out, with grades 4x the Chilean average | Western Forelands adds 42Mt @ 2.66% copper |
| Talon Metals (TSX:TLO) | Hold & Watch | Extremely high-grade intercepts are significant; Lundin Mining's stake provides endorsement | Tamarack project hits 27.39% NiEq intercept; stock up 34% |
| Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) | Hold & Watch | Positioning in high-grade projects via TLO stake acquisition | Acquires 19.99% of TLO; Jack Lundin adds at C$7.74 |
| BHP (LSE:BHP) | Hold & Watch | Copper becomes the largest revenue source for the first time; new trend in industry collaboration | Signs MoU with KGHM |
| Vale (NYSE:VALE) | Hold & Watch | Copper price rally changes the game; political headwinds are the core risk | Abandons VBM IPO; Manara takes 10% stake for $2.5B |
| Cabral Gold (TSXV:CBR) | Hold & Watch | First gold pour marks a milestone, but commercialization remains distant | First pour of 1,130oz gold; targeting commercialization by end-2026 |
| Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG) | Hold & Watch | Ecuador's tax claim poses a major risk | Ecuador claims $154M (including penalties) |
| Collective Mining (NASDAQ:CNL) | Hold & Watch | Market reacts negatively to maiden resource estimate, but incremental drilling continues | Indicated + Inferred resources exceed 5.4Moz gold equivalent; market cap $1.4B |
| Liberty Gold (TSXV:LGD) | Hold & Watch | Feasibility study shows strong economics, but capex rises | After-tax NPV $2.4B, IRR 60%, annual production 177koz |
| Seabridge Gold (NYSE:SA) | Hold & Watch | Progress on key infrastructure for the KSM project | Treaty Creek terminal completed; over C$1.2B invested to date |