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Oakmark FundsQuarterly30 Jun 2013Source: oakmark.com

David Herro Market Commentary | 2Q13

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This report says don't let scary economic news fool you—what really matters is a company's ability to make money. The author bought cheap Japanese and European stocks when everyone was worried, and they later rose. For regular investors, focus on solid, undervalued companies, especially those benefiting from reforms. It's worth reading because it shows that fear can create good buying opportunities.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Oakmark International Fund and International Small Cap Fund delivered positive absolute returns and outperformed their benchmarks this quarter. Despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures, corporate profitability continued to make modest progress. The report notes that since the 2008–2009 financial cris

~3 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter discusses the persistent disruption of investor sentiment by global macroeconomic events and how microeconomic reforms can become key to improving economic growth and unlocking equity value. The report notes that since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, investors have been overly focused on macro themes such as Japan's deflation, the condition of global banks, financial instability in the EU, and challenges in BRIC nations, leading to stock valuations being suppressed by fear, while "safe" global fixed-income assets have become overvalued.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is: Value depends on the present value of cash flows, not on news headlines. Harris Associates insists on seizing global undervaluation opportunities during periods of fear and uncertainty, and believes that the key to improving global economic growth lies in microeconomic reforms (e.g., labor market reforms, adjustments to social security systems), rather than monetary stimulus or low interest rates. Counterintuitive judgments include: heavy allocation to Japanese stocks and European financial stocks a year ago (when market sentiment was broadly pessimistic), as well as recognition of the People's Bank of China's move to curb liquidity growth and Italian Prime Minister's acknowledgment that sustainable growth comes from structural reforms rather than government spending.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Historical Comparison: A year ago, Harris Associates held heavy positions in Japanese stocks and European financial stocks, as these high-quality companies had share prices severely depressed by macro events but maintained robust balance sheets and sustainable business models; today, these holdings have rebounded significantly, proving that "fundamentals" have triumphed over macro concerns.
  • Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Warning: Central banks are "overburdened," calling for policies beyond monetary stimulus and low interest rates (such as labor market reforms and social security system adjustments) to address sluggish global growth.
  • People's Bank of China Action: By limiting overall liquidity growth in the financial system, it has slowed aggressive lending within the system, breaking expectations of a "loose money club."
  • Italian Prime Minister Letta's Statement: Acknowledged that sustainable growth stems from labor market flexibility, vocational training, and simplification of the judicial system, rather than government spending programs.
  • Brazil Case: Although most analysts believe Brazil has a sound growth plan, policies (red tape, bureaucracy, excessive regulation, high and opaque taxes, corruption) support short-term economic performance but stifle sustainable growth, leading to cross-class unrest. Harris Associates has not directly allocated to Brazilian assets in recent years due to the view that market valuations are too high.

Companies/Assets Involved

  • Japanese Stocks: Heavily allocated a year ago, as high-quality companies had share prices severely depressed by macro events but solid fundamentals; these have now rebounded significantly.
  • European Financial Stocks: Similarly undervalued due to macro events, with sustainable balance sheets and business models; prices have recovered notably.
  • Brazilian Assets: Not directly allocated, due to overvalued markets and an unsustainable policy environment; the author hopes to find value after a "reset."

Investment Implications

  • Focus on Beneficiaries of Micro Reforms: Investors should concentrate on companies that benefit from structural reforms such as labor market flexibility, social security reform, and judicial simplification, particularly in Europe and Japan.
  • Beware of Undervaluation Opportunities Driven by Macro Fear: Current market overreactions to macro themes (e.g., China's liquidity tightening, European reforms) may create windows to buy high-quality, undervalued companies.
  • Avoid Policy-Distorted Markets: Such as Brazil, where short-term growth policies may mask long-term structural issues, leading to inflated valuations; wait for value opportunities after a policy "reset."
  • Long-Term Optimism on Emerging Markets, but Requiring Structural Reforms: The emerging world will drive medium- to long-term global growth, but structural reforms in developed markets (Europe, Japan) can complement the unstable growth model of emerging markets.