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Oakmark FundsQuarterly31 Mar 2025Source: oakmark.com

Oakmark Fund: First Calendar Quarter 2025

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This report explains how Oakmark Fund beat the market in early 2025 while the S&P 500 fell. Instead of panicking, the fund bought stocks that had dropped too much. It added Marathon Petroleum (the largest US oil refiner, betting that low industry profits will recover) and Constellation Brands (the beer company behind Modelo and Corona, which faces temporary challenges but has strong brands). It also stuck with Alphabet (Google's parent), whose stock fell after cloud growth slowed slightly—but the fund thinks it's a bargain at just 15 times next year's earnings. The takeaway for ordinary investors: downturns can be a good time to buy quality companies at discounted prices, not a reason to run away.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Oakmark Fund's first-quarter 2025 report shows that the fund's investor class shares returned 1.14%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's -4.27%; since inception, the cumulative return stands at 12.76%, also exceeding the index's 10.44%. Core thesis: The fund capitalizes on sharp stock pr

~4 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter presents the performance review and investment activity summary of the Oakmark Fund for the first quarter of 2025. The report notes that the fund achieved a positive return of 1.14% during the quarter, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which declined by 4.27% over the same period. The fund took advantage of the market downturn to reposition its portfolio.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is that when stock prices fall sharply, active opportunities should be seized to reallocate the portfolio toward companies offering the most attractive risk-adjusted returns. A counterintuitive judgment is that despite Alphabet's stock price decline due to cloud business growth slightly missing expectations, the author believes its long-term growth prospects remain strong and its current valuation is significantly undervalued.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Fund Performance: The fund's investor class shares returned 1.14% for the quarter, versus -4.27% for the S&P 500 Index; since inception, the cumulative return is 12.76%, compared to 10.44% for the index.
  • Top Contributor AIG: Improved premium growth, strong underwriting performance, and significant capital returns; ROE is expected to converge toward peer levels, narrowing the valuation discount.
  • Top Detractor Alphabet: Strong search revenue growth, with AI features enhancing engagement; cloud business revenue grew 30% year-over-year but slightly missed consensus expectations. The author believes short-term capacity constraints are the main cause, while long-term growth prospects remain robust. The stock trades at just 15 times next year's estimated EPS, which the author considers significantly undervalued.
  • New Buy Marathon Petroleum: Operates the largest refining system in the U.S., with operations in advantaged regions and significant cost advantages; its midstream business holds a high market share in prolific gas fields, providing cash flow stability. Refining industry margins are under pressure from new global supply and weak demand, but the author believes they are already below sustainable levels, with long-term supply and demand set to rebalance.
  • New Buy Constellation Brands: A leading U.S. imported beer company, owning premium brands such as Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico. The beer business continues to outpace industry growth, benefiting from demographics, new distribution points, and future price increases. The stock has been pressured by industry and company-specific challenges, but the author views some of these challenges as temporary. Current valuation is significantly lower than that of other consumer goods companies with similar growth prospects.

Companies/Assets Involved

Company Role Key Data Bullish/Bearish
American International Group (AIG) Top Contributor Improved premium growth, strong underwriting, significant capital returns; ROE expected to converge with peers Bullish
Alphabet Cl A Top Detractor Strong search revenue, AI features boosting engagement; cloud revenue grew 30% but slightly missed; stock at 15x next year's EPS Bullish (considered undervalued)
Marathon Petroleum New Buy Largest U.S. refining system; midstream business holds high market share in prolific gas fields; industry margins below sustainable levels Bullish (buying into short-term imbalance)
Constellation Brands Cl A New Buy Owns premium beer brands like Modelo; beer business consistently outpaces industry growth; valuation below similar growth consumer goods companies Bullish (buying at a discount)
Deere and Company Contributor No specific data provided Bullish (mentioned as a contributor)
General Motors Detractor No specific data provided Bearish (mentioned as a detractor)
Merck Detractor No specific data provided Bearish (mentioned as a detractor)
Intercontinental Exchange Contributor No specific data provided Bullish (mentioned as a contributor)

Investment Insights

  • Capitalize on Market Downturns: When stock prices fall sharply, actively review and reallocate the portfolio, focusing on companies with the most attractive risk-adjusted returns.
  • Focus on Undervalued Tech Giants: Alphabet's current valuation is only 15 times next year's EPS. The market may be overly concerned about short-term cloud growth deceleration, while long-term AI capabilities and search business growth potential are not fully priced in.
  • Contrarian Positioning in Cyclical Industries: Marathon Petroleum's refining industry margins are already below sustainable levels. The long-term rebalancing of supply and demand will drive margin recovery, making now a buying opportunity.
  • Discount Opportunity in Consumer Staples Leaders: Despite facing short-term challenges, Constellation Brands' premium beer brands continue to outpace industry growth. Its current valuation is significantly lower than that of other consumer goods companies with similar growth prospects, offering room for value recovery.