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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast1 Nov 2016Source: traffic.libsyn.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Jon Stein – The State of Automated Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.09]

In plain words

This interview covers the state of automated investing with Betterment founder Jon Stein. He says the biggest competitor isn't another platform but inertia — people know they should invest but don't start. Betterment's value is making investing frictionless. Stein sees big opportunity in the 401(k) market, calling most people's retirement accounts 'terrible.' Key holdings mentioned: Vanguard ETFs (ultra-low fees at 0.04%), Schwab ETFs (also low-cost), and Goldman Sachs ETFs (using smart beta strategies).

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At a Glance Jon Stein, founder and CEO of Betterment, discussed the current state and prospects of robo-advisors on the program. Betterment currently manages $5 billion in assets and serves over 175,000 clients. The core argument is that by helping clients set financial goals, construct and dynamica

~9 min full read · 7 sections
Deep Analysis

At a Glance

Jon Stein is the founder and CEO of Betterment, which manages $5 billion in assets and serves over 175,000 clients. This issue explores the current state and prospects of automated investing (robo-advisors), with core topics including how to attract young investors, entering the 401(k) market, and partnership models with financial advisors.

Jon Stein believes that the biggest competitor for automated investment tools is not other platforms, but "inertia"—helping clients overcome inertia, take the first step, and continuously optimize their portfolios is where the true value of robo-advisors lies.


Theme 1: The Core Value of Automated Investing – Overcoming Inertia, Not Beating the Market

Jon Stein argues that Betterment’s biggest competitor is inertia. People know they should invest and manage their finances, yet they fail to act due to busyness, fear, or procrastination. Betterment’s mission is to make investing “extremely simple and frictionless,” thereby helping clients cross the threshold to action.

  • Mechanism Breakdown: From registration and funding to goal setting and cross-account coordination, Betterment automates the entire process, enabling clients to complete it in the shortest possible time. Stein emphasizes: “We make the whole process seamless and efficient, saving more time than anywhere else.”
  • Data Support: When clients execute trades within Betterment, the system displays a “tax impact preview” — showing the potential tax costs of that transaction. 75% of clients choose to cancel the trade after seeing a high-cost transaction alert. Stein notes that this not only saves clients on taxes but also prevents the behavioral mistake of market timing.
  • Historical Context: Betterment debuted at the TechCrunch conference in 2010, with around 20,000 viewers and 500 brave individuals signing up as its first clients. Since then, the largest source of new clients has consistently been word of mouth, a model that has scaled alongside business growth.

Extrapolation and Uncertainty: Stein believes that in the next true long-term bear market, client behavior will differ from conventional wisdom — clients will call not because of market volatility, but due to life events (inheritance, divorce, marriage, etc.). Whether automated tools can effectively manage client behavior under extreme market conditions remains to be verified.


Theme 2: Portfolio Construction — Factor Tilts and ETF Selection

Jon Stein argues that Betterment's portfolio construction is based on the principle of "maximum diversification," supplemented by long-term effective factor tilts. The firm does not follow pure passive index tracking but deliberately incorporates value and size factors.

  • Mechanism Breakdown: Betterment optimizes portfolios for each client, considering their goals, tax situation (e.g., New York clients are allocated New York municipal bonds), and long-term expected returns. In global asset allocation, there is a slight tilt toward value and size factors, as historical data shows these factors have "slightly outperformed" over the long term.
  • Data Chain: Within each asset class, Betterment selects ETFs from providers such as Vanguard, Schwab, and Goldman Sachs that offer the lowest fees, best liquidity, and smallest tracking error. Stein notes that some ETF expense ratios have already fallen to as low as 4 basis points, and the firm cannot match this cost by issuing its own ETFs.
  • Competitive Landscape: Stein explicitly states that Betterment will not issue its own ETFs, as the ETF market is already highly price-competitive, and the scale advantages of large ETF manufacturers (e.g., Vanguard) create cost barriers that are difficult to overcome.

Extrapolation and Uncertainty: Stein acknowledges that "there is no single correct approach" to factor selection — ten finance professors would give ten different answers, and "they would all be equally right and equally wrong." Betterment's strategy is to include any factor supported by long-term data in the portfolio, but without frequent adjustments. Readers should note that this is a position-holder's perspective — Betterment's factor tilts themselves serve as a differentiating selling point.


Theme 3: Business Expansion — The 401(k) Market and Advisor Partnership Platform

Jon Stein believes the 401(k) market represents the next major opportunity for automated investing, because "everyone's 401(k) is terrible." This space has long suffered from a lack of innovation, poor user experience, and high fees, making it an area ripe for disruption by Betterment.

  • Historical Context: Betterment views the 401(k) as its "biggest product launch," competing directly with traditional 401(k) providers such as Fidelity through a B2B sales process. Once a company signs up, the employee experience mirrors that of Betterment's individual clients — the same web/mobile interface, with the ability to view 401(k), IRA, and taxable accounts on a single dashboard.
  • Mechanism Breakdown: The Betterment for Advisors platform provides automated back-office services for financial advisors, including tax-loss harvesting, tax coordination, rebalancing, and glide path adjustments over time. Advisors can focus on high-value tasks such as client relationship management and estate planning while serving a larger number of clients.
  • Data Chain: Betterment currently manages $5 billion in assets, with the retail business (direct-to-consumer) still accounting for the largest share, but Stein believes the 401(k) business could eventually become equally large. The target client is mid-career professionals around age 45, with net worth between $250,000 and $2 million.

Extrapolation and Uncertainty: Stein notes that it is unclear which business line will become the largest revenue source in 10 years, but he hopes to build "large, exciting businesses" in every area. Readers should note that this is an optimistic outlook from the founder's perspective — the 401(k) market has high entry barriers and long sales cycles, so actual progress may be slower than anticipated.


Theme 4: Product Evolution – From Standardization to Personalization

Jon Stein argues that automated investing is moving from a "one-size-fits-all" approach toward "personalization," but personalization must occur within a "advice framework." Clients can have more choices, but not complete freedom—otherwise, it ceases to be "advice."

  • Mechanism Breakdown: Betterment recently announced partnerships with Vanguard and Goldman Sachs to offer different portfolio styles:
  • Vanguard Portfolio: Classic, purely passive global diversification
  • GSAM Portfolio: More active, incorporating smart beta strategies
  • Betterment Default Portfolio: Combines the best products from four different ETF manufacturers
  • Competitive Landscape: Stein believes that different clients and advisors have varying investment philosophies, making it reasonable to offer multiple "philosophical options." However, a fully open-ended "anarchy" (allowing clients to freely choose any exchange-listed product) falls outside the scope of advice and requires an advisor to act as an intermediary to set "guardrails."

Extrapolation and Uncertainty: Stein compares the future of automated investing to self-driving cars—the specific form is difficult to predict within 3-5 years, but over the long term, technology will make investing "thoughtless," much like people no longer need to worry about shifting gears. Clients can still set the destination (goals), but the driving process is fully automated.


Mentioned Positions

Position Guest Sentiment Key Data
Vanguard ETF Positive (as a portfolio component) Some ETF expense ratios as low as 4 basis points
Schwab ETF Positive (as a portfolio component) Specific expense ratios not provided
Goldman Sachs ETF (GSAM) Positive (as a portfolio component) Includes smart beta strategies
Cambria (Meb Faber) Positive (as an advisory platform partner) Specific data not provided

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. "Our biggest competitor is inertia" (Jon Stein) — People know they should invest, but procrastination, fear, and busyness prevent action. Betterment's core value is minimizing the barrier to taking action.

2. Tax impact preview reduces 75% of high-cost trades (Jon Stein) — When clients see the tax implications of a trade, 75% choose to cancel. This not only saves taxes but also discourages market-timing behavior.

3. Clients call not because of market volatility, but because of life events (Jon Stein) — Inheritance, divorce, marriage, childbirth, etc., are the real triggers for advisory needs, not market ups and downs.

4. "There is no single correct method of diversification" (Jon Stein) — Ten experts give ten answers, all "equally correct and equally wrong." Betterment's strategy: incorporate factor tilts as long as historical data supports them, but avoid frequent adjustments.

5. ETF fees have already dropped to 4 basis points; Betterment will not issue its own ETFs (Jon Stein) — Economies of scale give large ETF manufacturers an insurmountable cost advantage, so Betterment prefers to use existing market products.

6. The 401(k) market: "everyone's is terrible" = a huge opportunity (Jon Stein) — Chronic lack of innovation, high fees, and poor user experience make it a space ripe for disruption by automated investing. Betterment views 401(k) as a growth engine as important as its retail business.

7. The future of automated investing is like self-driving cars (Jon Stein) — Hard to predict in 3–5 years, but in the long run, investing will become "thoughtless": clients only need to set goals, and the system executes automatically.

8. Betterment is "a tech company solving client problems that happens to do investing" (Jon Stein) — Over half the team consists of engineers and product managers, with investment professionals in the minority. The company's core values are efficiency, iteration, long-termism, empowering teams, and pursuing happiness.