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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast22 Nov 2016Source: traffic.libsyn.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Kevin Simler – Exploring the Frontier - [Invest Like the Best, EP.12]

In plain words

This interview features Kevin Simler, an early Palantir employee, discussing startup culture, social status, and meaning. He says startup culture is like a 'frontier' where growth hides problems, but when growth stops, culture changes. He notes Palantir's failed financial product because the team lacked real passion for finance. On social status, he explains prestige is like a currency stored in people's minds—if you take without giving, your status erodes. The main company mentioned is Palantir, where he saw it grow from 20 to 1,000 employees, but its financial product didn't succeed.

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At a Glance This episode of Invest Like the Best features a conversation with Kevin Simler, exploring startup culture, the stimulation of creativity, the analogy between social status and money, and a broader worldview. The core argument: startups are akin to a "frontier," in contrast to "settled" d

~11 min full read · 8 sections
Deep Analysis

At a Glance

Kevin Simler, an early employee of Palantir Technologies (employee #20), is a computer scientist by training and an essayist often compared to Paul Graham. This episode explores startup culture, the economic metaphor of social status, and cosmology. The most weighty judgment in the entire episode: Simler argues that social status (prestige) can be "earned" and "spent" like currency, but the key difference is that if you keep taking without giving back, your "status account" will gradually deplete—unlike money, because status is stored in a decentralized manner in the minds of each member of the community.


Theme 1: Entrepreneurial Culture = Frontier vs. Settled

Simler argues that the essence of entrepreneurial culture is a "frontier" mindset—growth potential shapes culture, not the other way around.

  • The frontier is driven by growth: Simler points out that people go to the frontier (e.g., the American West) because "you might be constrained on the East Coast, so you go to a place that is open and full of possibilities." This growth mindset is the core of entrepreneurial culture. "That optimism, that sense that you are at the beginning of something that will become much bigger, was a huge part of my experience."
  • Growth masks internal problems: Simler admits that his experience at Palantir was "pure up and to the right"—growing from 20 to 1,000 people with revenue rising in tandem. "When the trajectory is up and to the right, you can get away with a lot. You don’t have to have those difficult conversations, you don’t have to make zero-sum trade-offs. It gives you leeway to have fun."
  • Static or declining environments are a blind spot: Simler acknowledges that he has "a huge blind spot"—not knowing what it feels like to be on a long-term static or downward trajectory. "When the tide goes out and everything is declining, everyone behaves completely differently."
  • Peter Thiel's related argument: Simler cites Thiel’s view that democracy only works when there is economic growth, because once it becomes a zero-sum game, institutions begin to break down. But Simler believes that as long as there is an economic frontier (technology, space, etc.), institutions can continue to function.

Patrick presses: Does winning cause good culture, or does good culture cause winning? Simler responds that "it is definitely a combination," but emphasizes that culture is a differentiator in competitive environments—when multiple teams have the right formula, "the team that wins is the one that collaborates best."


Theme 2: The Palantir Lesson — Smart People + Data ≠ Automatic Success

Simler uses Palantir’s failed financial product to illustrate that domain passion and hands-on experience are irreplaceable.

  • Arrogance of the core assumption: Simler describes Palantir’s founders’ core belief as “if you put enough smart people in a room, they will do the right thing and make the right thing happen.” This was both the reason for their success and the cause of all their mistakes.
  • Specific failure of the financial product: The team consisted of Stanford computer science graduates, none of whom truly cared about finance. “We all thought, oh, we’ll easily solve financial problems — because no one was actually in the trenches dealing with the nitty-gritty details of a financial analyst’s daily work.” The result was that “it should have worked in theory, but in practice it was less useful than expected.”
  • Key lesson: Simler concludes, “If you don’t have passion, if your mind isn’t drawn to and fascinated by the domain, you won’t solve problems in the optimal way.” Patrick adds: Real skill comes from “extensive mentorship, market experience, and an understanding of market nuances.”

Theme 3: The Economics of Social Status – Prestige vs. Dominance

Simler proposes that social status can be analyzed like currency, but a distinction must be made between "prestige" and "dominance."

  • Definition: Social status is "a measure of one's influence over others." Simler argues it can be viewed as an economic system—people desire more status, take actions to acquire it, and can also "spend" status to obtain other things.
  • Prestige vs. Dominance:
  • Dominance: Acquired through aggression and threats; others comply out of fear. "When you use this kind of status, others are afraid of you and may not necessarily want to be near you."
  • Prestige: Gained through impressive but non-threatening means (skills, contributions to others); others are drawn to you. "When you have prestige, others are attracted to you."
  • How the Status Account Works: Simler acknowledges that if status could be "spent without diminishing," it would not resemble currency. However, he argues that if you constantly take without giving back, "you take more from everyone in the community, and gradually, people will no longer see you as a hot commodity, and your status will slowly erode."
  • Honest Signals vs. Deceptive Signals: Simler draws on signaling theory from biology—honest signals (e.g., a gorilla beating its chest to display size) remain credible because they are "too costly to fake." Deceptive signals (e.g., a non-venomous snake mimicking the colors of a venomous one) reach an equilibrium in the ecosystem—when there are too many mimics, predators learn to ignore the signal.
  • Patrick's Observation: Recurring faces on CNBC can evoke irrational awe—even if viewers have no idea what they are saying. "This is purely status from the mere exposure effect." Simler explains that this is because these individuals possess "second-order skills"—the ability to influence others, even without "first-order skills" (expertise).

Theme 4: The Soil of Creativity — Rituals, Carnival, and Grassroots Spontaneity

Simler argues that genuine team cohesion and creativity stem from bottom-up, "carnival-like" rituals, not from HR-planned team-building activities.

  • Palantir's "Shantytown": Simler describes a week-long festival where a team of about 11 people voluntarily slept in the office, building temporary shelters out of cardboard. The reason was that they had moved from a distinctive octagonal studio to an office building "lacking character, with fluorescent lights and right angles." "This was our way of reclaiming the space."
  • The mechanism of "carnival": Simler draws on the anthropological concept of "carnival" — "a time specifically set aside to subvert all conventional social rules." This reveals which cultural rules are flexible and which are absolute (e.g., no violence). Such experiences create a "flatter organization" — "It's hard to hang out like this and still think, 'I'm your manager, you're my subordinate.'"
  • Necessary conditions: Such activities must be "bottom-up and grassroots-driven," not top-down planned by HR. "If it's planned bureaucratically, it just doesn't feel right." Simler emphasizes the need for "someone with boundless creativity and energy" to drive it — and he was fortunate to have such a colleague at Palantir.
  • Patrick's reflection: Traditional off-sites "don't feel right" — "The more radically you change the experience, the more you truly foster team cohesion."

Theme 5: The Essence of Meaning—From "Searching for Meaning" to "Play"

Simler argues that "searching for meaning" may be an adaptive drive, but one need not cling to grand narratives; Patrick proposes the metaphor that "the universe is fundamentally a game."

  • Simler's stance: He has never been troubled by the question of whether "life has meaning." His article Nihilist's Guide to Meaning attempts to understand why others care so deeply. "It's likely an adaptive drive—pushing us to try to have an impact on something larger than ourselves. If you're stuck in a situation that feels meaningless, this instinct urges you to leave and find more impactful work."
  • Patrick's framework: Patrick draws on Sam Harris's concept of "well-being," as well as Alan Watts and Hindu mythology—the universe as "God playing hide-and-seek with itself." "If you believe the underlying truth is 'play,' then the question you ask becomes, 'Does this hinder my ability to play?'"
  • Simler's caution: Simler is cautious about the claim that "the universe is fundamentally a game"—"If there is any answer, it's just atoms in a void." Yet he acknowledges that, as a metaphor, the game perspective "frees you from needing to justify everything—that obsession ultimately leads you to ask, 'Is there a God?' 'What is the meaning of life?' If you simply do, experiment, and play joyfully, that is liberating."
  • East-West metaphor comparison: Simler notes that the Western creation myth is "God building a machine"—mechanical and top-down. This gave rise to Newton and Einstein, but also created "a disconnect between the mechanical world and human experience." The game metaphor "is not more true, but it is more liberating and more fun."

Mentioned Positions

Position Guest Sentiment Key Data
Palantir Technologies Positive (from a former employee perspective) Employee count grew from 20 to 1,000 (during Simler's tenure); revenue grew in tandem; financial products ultimately did not become a major business line

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. Simler: The core of startup culture is growth potential, not culture itself. "When the trajectory is up and to the right, you can get away with a lot of things. You don't have to make those difficult zero-sum trade-offs." — Growth masks internal problems and also provides room for culture to develop.

2. Simler: Palantir's assumption that "smart people + data = success" is arrogant. "We all thought we'd easily solve financial problems — because no one was actually in the trenches dealing with the nitty-gritty details." — Domain passion and hands-on experience are irreplaceable.

3. Simler: Social status (prestige) is like currency, but more complex — it is stored in a distributed manner in the minds of each community member. "If you keep taking without giving back, everyone will gradually stop seeing you as a hotshot." — The status account can be depleted by overuse.

4. Simler: True team cohesion comes from bottom-up "carnivalesque" rituals, not HR-planned team-building activities. "If it's planned bureaucratically, it doesn't feel right. It has to be an organic expression that people naturally want to do." — Palantir's "Shantytown" (sleeping in the office for a week) is an example.

5. Simler: Honest signals are credible because they are "too expensive to fake." Gorillas beating their chests to display size, birds' bright feathers to show health — the cost of these signals ensures their authenticity. Deceptive signals (e.g., harmless snakes mimicking venomous snake colors) reach a dynamic equilibrium in ecosystems.

6. Simler: "Searching for meaning" may be an adaptive drive — pushing you to leave meaningless environments and find more impactful work. But obsessing over "grand meaning" may be unnecessary; Patrick adds: viewing the universe as a metaphor for "play" is more liberating than a mechanistic perspective.

7. Simler: Recurring faces on CNBC can evoke irrational awe — even if you don't know what they're talking about. This is because they possess "second-order skills" (the ability to influence others), even without "first-order skills" (expertise). This is the exposure effect of prestige.

8. Simler: Teams need "fire-aim-ready" rather than "ready-aim-fire." Citing the experience of a successful entrepreneur — immerse first, act first, then plan the details. This aligns with the "frontier" mindset.