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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast17 Dec 2019Source: traffic.libsyn.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Ben Savage – All Things Fintech Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.152]

In plain words

This interview is about the big trends in fintech investing. Guest Ben Savage thinks that over the next 20-50 years, investing will shift from public markets (like stocks) to private markets (like venture capital), because technology is making previously uninvestable assets (like personal loans, sneakers, or even teachers' homes) tradeable. He's bullish on income share agreements (ISAs, where you repay with a slice of future income), which let investors bet on specific groups' wages. Key holdings: Landed (helps teachers buy homes, creating a new risk layer), Lending Club (packages personal loans), and StockX (lets sneakers trade like stocks).

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Ben Savage (Partner at Clocktower Ventures) provided a comprehensive overview of the fintech investment ecosystem on the Invest Like the Best podcast. The core thesis is that technology is driving assets from liquid markets to illiquid markets, making previously uninvestable assets investable (as il

~13 min full read · 9 sections
Deep Analysis

Ben Savage – All Things Fintech Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.152]

At a Glance

In the interview, Ben Savage (Partner at Clocktower Ventures) systematically articulates the core framework for fintech investing. Savage argues that over the next 20-50 years, the investment world will undergo a massive shift from "liquid, regulated markets" (i.e., today's public markets) to "illiquid, lightly regulated markets" (i.e., today's private markets). Technology is making previously invisible and unreadable assets investable, which will fundamentally reshape the landscape of asset management.


I. From "Public vs. Private" to "Liquidity vs. Regulation"—Redefining Market Quadrants

Savage argues that today's dichotomy of "public markets vs. private markets" is a historical accident, a byproduct of the post-Great Depression regulatory framework.

  • Historical Context: The Great Depression of 1929 was an extreme anomaly. In response, the U.S. created the Federal Reserve (to stabilize economic fluctuations) and the securities regulatory system (to stabilize market fluctuations), thereby giving rise to "regulated liquid markets"—what we now call public markets. Savage notes: "This is a product of the regulatory architecture, not an inevitable outcome of natural market evolution."
  • Framework Restructuring: Savage proposes redefining markets along two axes—Liquidity (liquid vs. illiquid) × Regulation (regulated vs. unregulated). Public markets = liquid + regulated; venture capital = illiquid + lightly regulated.
  • Trend Assessment: The future will see a shift from the "liquid, regulated" quadrant toward the "illiquid, lightly regulated" quadrant. Two driving forces: first, regulation may have already peaked around Trump's election ("We may have already reached the peak of regulation around the time of Trump's election"); second, technology is injecting liquidity into markets that were traditionally illiquid.

Implication: Savage believes that 20–50 years from now, the majority of market value and alpha opportunities will reside in what is today called "private markets." This means both institutional and individual investors will need to rethink their asset allocation frameworks.


2. How Technology Turns "Uninvestable Assets" into Investable Ones

Savage argues that the core opportunity in fintech lies in "making assets that were previously invisible and unreadable investable" — an extension of what ETFs have done in the past.

Historical Analogy: Gold ETF (GLD)

Savage uses the gold ETF as a classic example: 25 years ago, buying physical gold was extremely cumbersome — requiring visits to physical stores, paying markups, and managing storage. Today, "with a click on the screen, you own GLD." The ETF injected liquidity into the gold market, enabling millions of investors to hold gold as part of their portfolios.

Contemporary Examples: From Personal Loans to Sneakers

Asset Class Past State Technology/Platform Current State
Personal loans Held on bank balance sheets Lending Club, Prosper Securitized and purchased by institutions, hundreds of billions in scale
Sneakers/collectible cars Non-standard, illiquid StockX, Rally Road Tradable with market pricing
Agricultural receivables Invisible Startup platforms Tradable
Equity in small consumer companies Inaccessible to institutions and individuals CircleUp Accessible to accredited investors

In-Depth Case: Innovation in Residential Real Estate Capital Stack

Savage uses Landed as an example to illustrate how technology can alter the risk structure at the asset level:

  • Traditional residential capital stack: Only two layers — common equity (homeowner's equity) + senior secured debt (mortgage). In contrast, corporate capital stacks are highly complex (multiple layers of debt, different equity tranches, mezzanine, options, etc.).
  • Landed's innovation: Provides down payment matching for teachers — the teacher contributes $100,000, Landed matches with $100,000, but Landed takes less than half of the appreciation upon sale. This effectively creates a "mezzanine" risk layer at the individual home level.
  • Significance: When thousands of such individual asset-level risk pools are aggregated, institutional investors gain access to an entirely new asset class — owner-occupied residential real estate (with risk characteristics distinct from investor-owned rental housing). Savage notes: "Today, large institutions cannot buy owner-occupied residential real estate, but technology is changing that."

Reader note: Savage is an investor in Landed, and this analysis reflects his position. He himself acknowledges: "They would hate me calling it mezzanine, but that's what it looks like."


3. Income Share Agreements (ISAs) — Creating a New Beta Exposure

Savage argues that Income Share Agreements (ISAs) will create a new, high-resolution approach to risk pricing, allowing investors to directly bet on the future income of specific populations.

Mechanism Breakdown

  • Traditional Student Loans: These are credit instruments, guaranteed by the government, with distorted pricing. Savage judges that they are "almost inevitably not going to be fully repaid."
  • ISAs: These are more akin to equity instruments — investors provide capital, and borrowers repay with a fixed percentage of their future income. Investors may get back significantly more than they lent, or significantly less.
  • Technological Advantage: ISA underwriting can achieve extremely high resolution — leveraging data points such as school, major, grades, and career plans. Savage: "Technology is very good at creating higher-granularity risk pricing."

Extrapolation: A New Beta Exposure

Savage believes ISAs will grant investors access to investment themes that were previously impossible to express directly:

Expressed View Traditional Approach ISA Approach
Doctor incomes will decline Buy/sell healthcare stocks or bonds Directly short a doctor ISA pool
U.S. wages will rise Via inflation instruments (imperfect correlation) Directly long a wage ISA
Bay Area wages vs. New York wages Cannot be expressed directly Long Bay Area ISA + Short New York ISA

Savage judges: "Almost every participant in the student loan infrastructure dislikes the current system — from universities to the government to debt providers. The only ones who like it are the servicers, and even they are starting to realize the business is collapsing under its own weight."


4. The "Indexation" Paradox and Privileged Access Problem in Private Markets

Savage argues that, in theory, an indexation strategy for venture capital can be constructed, but the "privileged access" problem makes actual implementation extremely difficult—the brand premium of top-tier VCs can even lead founders to accept a 40% valuation discount.

Feasibility of Indexed Venture Capital

  • Market size: U.S. venture capital amounts to approximately $100 billion annually. A $200 billion pension fund, if it only invests in the top 50% of managers (Savage believes "if you can't even judge that, you should resign"), would need only $500 million per year, or $1.5 billion over three years—representing 1.5% of the portfolio.
  • Execution method: Not executed by managers, but by large asset allocators themselves—"buy a small piece of every top 50% manager."

The Stubbornness of Privileged Access

Savage shared a key case: a founder in his portfolio, in order to secure the brand of a top-tier VC, accepted "a valuation that he internally believed was 40% lower than the market." The founder also called other portfolio companies of that VC and received the following response: "Yes, you have to accept a 40% discount, but you'll get a premium in the next round because of the brand."

Savage is skeptical of this ("it may not sound true"), but he acknowledges: "These brands are strong enough in founders' minds because the market is not transparent enough and lacks liquidity—you can't really tell whether a manager is creating value."

Extrapolation: As capital continues to flood into venture capital, can this privilege persist? Savage draws a parallel to private equity in the early 2000s—when everyone said "it can't get any bigger," but by 2020 it was larger than anyone had imagined. He believes venture capital will follow a similar path.


V. Future Work and "Emerging Financial Services" — From Corporate-Exclusive to Individual-Accessible

Savage argues that a core trend is that "financial functions once affordable only for large enterprises are being democratized through technology to small businesses, freelancers, and gig workers."

Key Case Study: Payroll and Instant Payments

  • Current Paradox: "We can settle complex derivatives trades in T+4, but most people settle their wages in T+14." Savage believes this makes no sense — employees provide labor to employers, and employers return money, yet the settlement cycle lasts up to two weeks.
  • Technology-Driven: A wave of startups is offering wage advance services. One company Savage invested in first sells SaaS software to clients like restaurants, then "turns on the payment function" to generate incremental revenue.
  • Deeper Implication: As work becomes atomized, companies can measure who is creating value in real time and pay them in real time. Savage: "People like getting paid faster — even if it's somewhat irrational from a purely logical standpoint."

The "Yoga Instructor Bank" — The Logic of Vertical Financial Services

Savage proposes a counterintuitive framework: In the past, JPMorgan could not build a bank for yoga instructors because the cost of building a bank far exceeded the size of that market. But today:

Past Present
Needed to build core systems in-house Can outsource to infrastructure companies
Needed to build marketing in-house Can outsource to precision marketing platforms
Needed to build UI in-house Can outsource to design firms

Conclusion: The cost of building a "yoga instructor bank" has dropped significantly, making it economically viable. Savage believes the real opportunity is not yoga instructors, but large categories such as medical practitioners, first responders, military personnel, and venture capitalists — a "death by a thousand cuts" competition is threatening large banks.


Mentioned Positions

Position Guest Stance Key Data
Landed Bullish (Invested) Matches down payments for teachers, creating a "mezzanine" layer in residential capital stacks
Lending Club / Prosper Neutral (As Case Study) Personal loan securitization market reaches hundreds of billions of dollars
StockX / Rally Road Neutral (As Case Study) Makes sneakers/collectible cars tradable
CircleUp Bullish (Invested) Enables institutions and accredited investors to buy equity in small consumer companies
Silicon Valley Bank / First Republic Neutral (As Case Study) Successful case of building a bank for the venture capital community
Geico Neutral (As Case Study) Achieves success through precise risk pool selection and low-cost operations
Robinhood Neutral (As Case Study) Reduces commissions to zero, jumping to the endpoint of the trend
Betterment / Wealthfront Neutral (As Case Study) Provides passive indexing to individuals at low cost
Intuit / TurboTax Neutral (As Case Study) Still fails to reach the complexity of large-scale corporate tax planning

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. "Stop saying public markets and private markets; say liquid markets and regulated markets" — Savage argues that today's dichotomy is an accidental byproduct of the 1930s regulatory framework. Over the next 20–50 years, the world will shift en masse from the "liquid + regulated" quadrant to the "illiquid + low-regulation" quadrant.

2. "We haven't heard of a single blockchain project that makes me think, 'If we didn't use blockchain and just used an SQL server, what would be different?'" — Savage is skeptical of cryptocurrencies, believing that aside from Bitcoin's legitimate use case as "digital gold," the magic disappears from most blockchain applications once the word "blockchain" is replaced with "alternative database technology."

3. "A founder accepted a 40% valuation discount just to get the brand of a top-tier VC" — Savage uses this case to illustrate how deeply entrenched the "privileged access" problem is in the venture capital market. Brand premiums can persist in opaque markets, even when higher bids are available.

4. "We can settle complex derivatives in T+4, but most people settle their wages in T+14" — Savage believes the wage settlement cycle represents a massive opportunity for fintech. Technology is making the moment of "labor-value exchange" more real-time and transparent.

5. "In the past, building a 'yoga instructor bank' wasn't worthwhile because the cost of building a bank far exceeded the size of that market—but today, costs have dropped dramatically" — Savage proposes that vertical financial services (e.g., "banking + medical practitioners," "banking + police officers") will become the core form of future fintech, with large banks facing the threat of "death by a thousand cuts."

6. "An ISA allows you to bet that 'U.S. doctor incomes will decline'—today you can't directly express that view, but in the future you will" — Savage believes income share agreements will create entirely new beta exposures, enabling investors to directly bet on the future income of specific populations—something traditional financial instruments cannot achieve.

7. "A $200 billion pension fund, if it only invests in the top 50% of venture capital managers, needs just $500 million a year—that's only a 1.5% position" — Savage argues that venture capital indexing is theoretically feasible, but the "privileged access" problem makes it extremely difficult in practice. The brand premium of top-tier VCs can even lead founders to accept valuations 40% below market.