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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast23 Dec 2021Source: joincolossus.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Nick Saltarelli - One Foot in Front of the Other - [Founder’s Field Guide, EP. 54]

In plain words

This is about Nick Saltarelli, founder of Mid-Day Squares chocolate bars. He says the biggest opportunity in packaged food is hidden beneath a crowded surface—most brands use co-packers (outside factories), so products taste the same. Companies that build their own factories can create a real moat (hard-to-copy advantage). He highlights his own company: Mid-Day Squares, costs dropped from $1.40 to $0.18 per bar, targeting $100M revenue in 3 years. He warns about Hershey's relying on Reese's and outsourcing production, and regrets that RX Bar's founder sold too early.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

This report discusses the entrepreneurial journey and core insights of Nick Saltarelli, co-founder of Mid-Day Squares, regarding the functional chocolate bar brand. Key conclusions include: the company set a revenue target of $100 million to maintain a balance between long-term thinking and short-te

~10 min full read · 8 sections
Deep Analysis

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At a Glance

Nick Saltarelli is the co-founder of Mid-Day Squares, a functional chocolate bar brand. The core thesis of this interview is: how to build a brand with long-term competitiveness in a seemingly saturated CPG market dominated by giants, by making a series of unconventional, non-average decisions. The most significant judgment in the entire episode is: Nick Saltarelli believes that the biggest opportunity in the CPG industry lies precisely beneath the surface where the "low-hanging fruit" has already been picked — because the industry's over-reliance on co-packers has led to severe product commoditization, allowing any company willing to go deep into the supply chain and create truly differentiated products to build a strong moat.

Topic Sections

1. Unconventional Competitive Philosophy: Making "Non-Average" Decisions

Nick Saltarelli believes that to achieve non-average results, one must make non-average decisions, especially in the CPG industry, which means actively choosing the opposite direction from the "herd."

  • Core Framework: Nick learned a core concept from a college professor: "It is physically impossible to get a non-average output from a dataset fed with average inputs." He treats this as a guiding principle for all decisions at Mid-Day Squares. The company's decision algorithm is: first, determine what the "herd" would decide, then explore a completely opposite direction.
  • Specific Applications: While most CPG startups pursue an asset-light model and outsourced manufacturing, Mid-Day Squares did the opposite, choosing to build its own factory. While peers flooded into various niche markets, they entered one of the world's largest snack markets — chocolate. While the market generally believed the cold supply chain was "too difficult," they saw it as a moat to avoid direct competition with giants like Hershey's and Mars.
  • Deduction and Validation: Nick acknowledges that being unconventional doesn't guarantee success, but it guarantees uniqueness of outcome. He advises entrepreneurs to scrutinize every decision and ask themselves: "Is this decision made because everyone else is doing it, or based on our own data?" This mindset is the cornerstone of all company strategies.
2. Supply Chain "Reverse Integration": The Moat from Co-packing to In-house Manufacturing

Nick Saltarelli believes the biggest problem in the CPG industry is product commoditization, rooted in the misaligned incentives between co-packers and brand owners, which stifles innovation. Building an in-house factory is the fundamental solution.

  • Industry Pain Point: Nick points out that since the 1980s and 1990s, large CPG companies began divesting heavy assets and outsourcing production. This led co-packers, in their pursuit of maximum efficiency, to force brand owners to use standardized ingredients and formulas, ultimately resulting in products that "all taste the same" on the shelf. R&D is severely neglected in the CPG industry.
  • Mid-Day Squares' Path: The company started by producing in their own apartment (costing $1.40 per bar). By gradually building demand and improving cash flow, they eventually convinced the government and investors to support building their own factory. Today, their manufacturing cost has dropped to approximately $0.18-0.19 per bar, and raw material costs have been reduced by 40% due to increased purchasing volume.
  • Implications for Global Expansion: Citing examples from Coca-Cola and RX Bar, Nick warns against easily selling global manufacturing rights. He believes that manufacturing capability is the company's core competitiveness and moat and must be firmly controlled. The company plans to build its own factories in North America, Mexico, and the EU to achieve the ultimate goal of "low SKU count, global distribution."
3. Marketing as a "Band Model": Using Content to Drive Sales, Not Advertising

Mid-Day Squares' marketing strategy completely overturns the traditional CPG model. They view themselves as a "90s music band," creating "reality show" style content to build emotional connections rather than running traditional advertisements.

  • Core Concept: Co-founder Jake proposed the formula: "Elon Musk + Kardashians + Shark Tank = Mid-Day Squares." They believe the next decade belongs to entrepreneurs, and the company's task is to tell a genuine, non-anxiety-inducing entrepreneurial story, allowing consumers to form an emotional connection with the founders and the brand.
  • Execution Details:
  • First Investment: The company's first official employee was not a salesperson, but a videographer, tasked with documenting everything about the company.
  • Viral Marketing: In the early days of the product launch, they sold it locally in Montreal for 50 cents, delivered it personally, and included a Polaroid photo of themselves in quirky costumes. This prompted customers to share on social media, creating a viral effect.
  • Content-Driven Problem Solving: When the company faced a shortage of coconut sugar, instead of calling suppliers, they turned to their social media followers for help. Within 24 hours, a fan's father provided the key equipment to solve the problem. Since then, "asking for help on social media" has become the company's standard operating procedure for problem-solving.
  • Unique Culture: The company requires dancing before every meeting. This culture of "not taking themselves too seriously" not only unites the team but also becomes part of their marketing content, attracting companies like Google and Facebook to invite them for talks.
4. Long-Termism and the Pragmatic "One Step at a Time" Mentality

Nick Saltarelli integrates the philosophy of "plan as if you'll live forever, live as if you'll die today" into entrepreneurship, emphasizing that a long-term vision guides short-term decisions, while pragmatic "one step at a time" action is the only path to achieving grand goals.

  • Value of a Long-Term Vision: Setting a distant goal (e.g., $10 billion in revenue) can alleviate short-term pressure. Nick uses his hockey experience as an example: when the goal was to make the NHL, he didn't have to worry about performance in the next season but could focus on daily training plans. This mindset helps him stay steady in the face of short-term setbacks.
  • Practice of "One Step at a Time": From producing in their home kitchen, to convincing the government to fund a factory, to gradual automation, every step of Mid-Day Squares follows the pragmatic principle of "build demand first, then capacity." Nick believes North American manufacturing is too focused on "one-shot" modern factories, neglecting the path of starting small and upgrading gradually.
  • Personal Drive: His father's sudden death when he was 10 years old gave him a profound understanding that "plans can't keep up with changes," fostering a sense of urgency to "live in the moment." He also emphasizes planning for the long term like his father, who "planned as if he'd live forever," but acting with the urgency of someone who is "dying today," cherishing each day.

Position Moves

Position Analyst Stance Key Data
Mid-Day Squares Bullish (Founder's Perspective) Target $100M revenue (within 3 years); Manufacturing cost reduced from $1.40/bar to $0.18-0.19/bar; Raw material costs down 40%; Raised $10M
Hershey's Risk Warning (as a comparison) Majority of revenue comes from one brand, Reese's; No longer manufactures its own chocolate, outsources to Barry Callebaut
RX Bar Neutral (with regret) Nick believes founder Peter Rahal could have built a much larger company and sold too early
Saputo Bullish (as a role model) Market cap ~$13.5B; World's second-largest dairy group
Paysafe Bullish (as a role model) Founded by Rory Olson; World's third-largest payment wallet
Airborne Entertainment Bullish (as a role model) Founded by Rory Olson; Exited in 2.5 years for ~$100M ($95M+)

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. "You cannot get a non-average output from average inputs." — Nick Saltarelli. This is the meta-law guiding all decisions at Mid-Day Squares. To achieve extraordinary results, one must make extraordinary, unconventional decisions.

2. "The biggest problem in the CPG industry is product commoditization, rooted in the incentive structure of co-packers." — Nick Saltarelli. Co-packers prioritize maximum efficiency, forcing brand owners to use standardized ingredients and stifling innovation. Building an in-house factory is the only way to create differentiated products.

3. "Our marketing strategy is the 'band model'; we aren't selling chocolate, we are selling stories and emotional connections." — Nick Saltarelli. The company views itself as a 90s music band, building a fan community by creating "reality show" style content, rather than running traditional ads.

4. "The company's first official employee was a videographer, not a salesperson." — Nick Saltarelli. This underscores the company's extreme emphasis on content marketing, believing that great content automatically attracts customers and channels.

5. "Plan as if you'll live forever, live as if you'll die today." — Nick Saltarelli. This is the balancing philosophy he learned from his father's early death. Plan grandly for the long term, but cherish each day, live in the moment, and act efficiently.

6. "Always be fundraising, even if you don't have a business yet." — Nick Saltarelli. He learned from his mentor Rory Olson to build relationships with potential investors early, not just when you need the money.

7. "Don't sell global manufacturing rights; look at the lessons from Coca-Cola and RX Bar." — Nick Saltarelli. He believes manufacturing capability is the core moat and must be firmly controlled. Selling rights leads to misaligned incentives and can ultimately result in losing control of the brand and market.

8. "When you have a problem, ask your fans, don't call your supplier." — Nick Saltarelli. Mid-Day Squares successfully solved a coconut sugar shortage through social media, proving that the power of community far exceeds traditional supply chain relationships.