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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast10 Apr 2018Source: traffic.libsyn.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Nikhil Kalghatgi – Moonshot Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.82]

In plain words

This episode covers Nikhil Kalghatgi's 'moonshot investing' strategy—finding opportunities others avoid, like asteroid mining (Planetary Resources, which he invested in, valuing water on one asteroid at over $1 trillion) and synthetic biology firm Ginkgo Bioworks (bullish, could cut costs 100x). He says crypto's biggest risk isn't price drops but liquidity freezes (can you sell when markets crash?), so his fund partners with exchange CEOs and Japan's SBI Holdings for exit routes. He also interviewed 160 billionaires and found happiness has no formula—it's about your own definition.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

This episode of Invest Like the Best features CoVenture partner Nikhil Kalghatgi, who discusses his "moonshot investing" philosophy. The core idea is to seek sustainable, differentiated investment advantages and assess the types of markets and talent suitable for moonshot projects. Key takeaways inc

~12 min full read · 7 sections
Deep Analysis

This Issue at a Glance

Nikhil Kalghatgi is a partner at CoVenture and CEO of CoVenture Crypto. This issue explores his "moonshot investing" philosophy—seeking "impossible" opportunities that others are unwilling to touch to gain a pricing advantage. Core judgment: Nikhil Kalghatgi believes that the biggest risk in the cryptocurrency space is not price declines, but liquidity freezes—whether you can actually liquidate assets when the market crashes is what determines success or failure.


I. Moonshot Investing: Not a Sector, but a Strategy

Nikhil Kalghatgi argues that the core of moonshot investing is not about which industry to bet on, but about "finding what others are unwilling or unable to do" — that is a sustainable competitive advantage.

  • Mechanism Breakdown: Most VCs try to do many small things to help a company. Nikhil's strategy is to focus solely on "the one thing that could change the company by an order of magnitude, but has a very low probability, and no one is willing to spend time on." He asks founders at the first meeting: "What is the one thing that could improve your business by an order of magnitude, but has such a low probability that you dare not invest a quarter of your time in it?" Then he devotes all his energy to that one thing — even if it fails a year later, it will at least have advanced the timeline.
  • Data Chain: He cites three examples — Planetary Resources (asteroid mining), Hyperloop, and Ginkgo Bioworks (engineering microbes to replace traditional chemicals). Taking Planetary Resources as an example: the essence of asteroid mining is not mining, but finding water — water in space can be converted into rocket fuel, and transporting water from Earth into orbit is extremely expensive. The water resources on a single asteroid could be worth over $1 trillion.
  • Market Evaluation Framework: Nikhil considers himself a "market-type investor" (as opposed to "people-type" or "business-model-type"). His three-step process for evaluating moonshot opportunities: ① In 3-5 years or even 7-10 years, will macro trends create a hundred-billion-dollar market opportunity? ② Is it a winner-takes-all market? ③ If so, how do you ensure that what you are doing now will allow you to eventually "take all"?
  • Founder Evaluation: His sole criterion for evaluating founders is product velocity — "Product iteration speed is learning speed; it's about getting feedback from the real world. Making a PPT is easy; shipping a product is the hardest thing." He does not care about a founder's grand narrative, but about "how many major product iterations you have made in the past 16 weeks."

2. The Happiness Project: Three Lessons from 160 Ultra-Wealthy Individuals

Nikhil Kalghatgi spent 18 months interviewing over 100 (ultimately 160) self-made billionaires and discovered three striking commonalities.

  • Historical Context: The project stemmed from family pressure triggered by his father's health crisis. Nikhil promised himself at the time that he "wouldn't end up like that," and thus decided to systematically study happiness—not from books, but from the ultra-wealthy who "already had the chance to think about happiness."
  • Selection Criteria: Must be self-made centi-millionaires, in their first marriage, with children, and "observably happy." He directly called these wealthy individuals: "I don't care how you made your money; I just want to grow up to be a happy person." Almost everyone agreed—because this was a question they had never been asked before.
  • Three Key Findings:

1. Happiness Has No Formula: These individuals have an extremely clear definition of "their own happiness" and are completely indifferent to others' definitions. "You cannot judge yourself by someone else's standards—this isn't just a platitude; it's how they truly live."

2. Relationships Require 'Sacrificial' Investment: They work diligently on their 2-3 most core relationships (typically spouse and children). Nikhil asked them: "How do you know you're giving enough attention?" They could clearly point out the greatest sacrifice they had made for that relationship. This question made Nikhil feel "very small"—"I hadn't even thought about 'what sacrifices I've made for my relationships.'"

3. Happiness Is Practice, Not a State: Happiness is like "a ball rolling down a hill"—it requires constant resistance. He gave a personal example: He used to go to a coffee shop every day (what he thought was his source of happiness). After moving to San Francisco for a month, he lost this habit and replaced it with having breakfast with his wife every day—only to discover that this was the huge source of happiness he had truly been missing. "People always overestimate what makes them happy and underestimate the uncertain things."


3. Cryptocurrency: Liquidity is King, Not Price

Nikhil Kalghatgi argues that the core of cryptocurrency investing is not predicting prices, but solving liquidity issues—the biggest structural risk in the entire industry.

  • Historical Context: In 2012, Nikhil missed Chris Larsen's (Ripple founder) pitch because "no one said the word blockchain" at the time. His partner Savneet Singh invested. Nikhil later spent years gaining first-hand experience by observing miners, protocol development, exchanges, etc., before he "came around."
  • Core Judgment: "There has never been a $400 billion liquid financial asset class driven entirely by retail investors." Retail investors are more susceptible to media influence and less "sticky" than institutions. Therefore, when the market declines, the risk of liquidity freezing is far greater than the price drop itself.
  • Liquidity Strategy: Nikhil's entire CoVenture Crypto business is built around "safest and most liquid." Specific measures include:
  • Partnering with SBI Holdings (a major Japanese listed financial group, formerly a SoftBank investment) to access Japan's largest liquidity pool
  • Establishing deep relationships with exchanges—he once called the CEO of an exchange with $3.5 billion in annual revenue at 9 PM on Thanksgiving to ask them to "press a button" to resolve an account issue
  • Investing in or partnering with OTC dealers and core protocol developers to ensure "first access to new liquidity features"
  • Capital Inflow Timeline: Nikhil revised his earlier judgment that "retail comes first, institutions follow." He believes the actual path is: Institutions first design products for retail (e.g., ETFs, crypto products in retirement accounts), then retail enters through these products, and finally institutions themselves become direct investors. He expects a significant inflow of institutional capital within the next 1-3 years.
  • Regulatory Risk: If governments coordinate to shut down exchanges (e.g., declaring Bitcoin illegal), that would be a "more serious problem." But Nikhil does not believe this will happen—he is more concerned about exchanges closing due to liquidity issues, hence the need for "cross-exchange redundancy" and "OTC relationships" as exit channels.
  • Value Proposition: Nikhil believes the core value of cryptocurrency is "the speed of capital formation and exchange"—he has personally demonstrated to CPAs, lawyers, and parents how money moves from one account to another in seconds. "That feeling is contagious and intoxicating." But he clearly states: "Cryptocurrency will replace government currency? That's a joke. I won't see it in my lifetime."

4. Lessons from SoftBank and Military Intelligence: Long-Term Thinking and Network Explosions

Nikhil Kalghatgi learned two key capabilities from his experiences at SoftBank and in military intelligence: making decisions on a 100-year timescale and proactively doubling down during moments of network explosion.

  • SoftBank Experience: Founder Masayoshi Son has a 300-year vision. Nikhil learned to make decisions using a "deathbed perspective"—"If I look back on my deathbed, will this decision make me happy?" SoftBank demonstrated the ability of a "massive organization to still move flexibly" in multibillion-dollar deals such as Alibaba's IPO and the acquisition of Sprint.
  • Military Intelligence: His mentor taught him the skills of "managing the largest organization (the U.S. government)"—not just top-down management, but also cross-organizational relationship management. A key lesson: "When you are in a moment of network explosion, proactively allocate resources rather than be overwhelmed." He gave an example: as the most junior person, he camped outside a four-star general's office to secure a 15-minute one-on-one meeting—because "people at your level have never asked for a meeting."
  • Manufactured Serendipity: Nikhil introduced the concept of "manufactured serendipity"—regularly taking a series of actions, not knowing which specific one will succeed, but knowing that "one of them will turn out well." For instance, he organized the "Necker Summit" on Richard Branson's Necker Island, inviting ultra-high-net-worth individuals and founders, with the goal of "making new friends"—"If you introduce someone to their future spouse, they owe you for life." Worst case: the invitation is declined, but the recipient still receives a gift.

Mentioned Positions

Position Guest Stance Key Data
Planetary Resources (Asteroid Mining) Bullish (Invested) Single asteroid water resource value >$1 trillion
Ginkgo Bioworks (Synthetic Biology) Bullish (Invested) Replacing traditional chemical processes with engineered microbes, costs can be reduced by 100x
Hyperloop Bullish (Invested) Specific data not disclosed
Ripple (Chris Larsen) Missed (Not Invested) Pitched in 2012, partner Savneet invested
Bitcoin Neutral to Slightly Positive Never hacked; can handle $700-800 billion in scale; but "not today's store of value, it's the closest"
Coinbase Neutral (Mentioned as Industry Phenomenon) Essentially a "bank," charges significantly higher fees than other exchanges
SBI Holdings (Japan) Partner Large publicly listed financial group, holds Japan's largest crypto liquidity pool

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. Nikhil Kalghatgi believes that the essence of moonshot investing is not about backing big projects, but about "finding things others are unwilling to do"—because with no competition, you naturally have pricing power. Support: He invests in asteroid mining, synthetic biology, and Hyperloop, not because they are sexy, but because "other VCs think it's impossible, so no one bids."

2. Nikhil Kalghatgi finds that ultra-wealthy individuals have an extremely clear definition of happiness and completely disregard what others think—there is no formula for happiness, only your own definition. Support: After interviewing 160 self-made billionaires, he found the first commonality is that "they couldn't care less about others' standards of happiness."

3. Nikhil Kalghatgi argues that the biggest risk in cryptocurrency is not a price decline, but a liquidity freeze—when the market crashes, can you actually liquidate your assets? Support: His entire CoVenture Crypto business is built around "safest and most liquid," including calling an exchange CEO at 9 p.m. on Thanksgiving to resolve an account issue.

4. Nikhil Kalghatgi revises the consensus that "retail comes first, institutions follow," arguing the actual path is: institutions first design products for retail (ETFs/retirement accounts), retail enters through these products, and only then do institutions themselves become direct investors. Support: He expects significant institutional capital inflows over the next 1-3 years, but the entry point is "regulated products distributed by institutions to retail."

5. Nikhil Kalghatgi believes the only metric for evaluating early-stage founders is product velocity—not PPT skills, not fundraising ability, but "how many major product iterations have been made in the past 16 weeks." Support: Product velocity equals learning speed, and it is the only way to gain feedback from the real world.

6. Nikhil Kalghatgi proposes a "manufactured serendipity" framework: regularly take a series of actions, not knowing which will succeed, but knowing that "at least one will turn out well." Support: When organizing a summit on Necker Island, the worst-case scenario is an invitation being declined (the recipient still receives a gift), while the best-case scenario creates lifelong friends and hundreds of millions of dollars in investment opportunities.

7. Nikhil Kalghatgi believes that cryptocurrency will not replace government-issued currency—"that's a joke, and I won't see it in my lifetime." Support: He views Bitcoin's value as "digital gold" and "the speed of capital formation and exchange," rather than a disruption of the existing financial system.

8. Nikhil Kalghatgi learned from SoftBank to "make decisions on a 100-year timescale"—looking back from a deathbed perspective, will this decision make me happy? Support: Masayoshi Son has a 300-year vision, and SoftBank has demonstrated the ability of "a large organization to still move flexibly" in deals like Alibaba and Sprint.