← Back to list
Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast30 May 2017Source: traffic.libsyn.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

David Chilton - The Human Blitzkrieg - [Invest Like the Best, EP.39]

In plain words

This piece covers David Chilton's 'human blitzkrieg' approach: he spends hundreds of hours on phone research before betting big on a few stocks. He says the best investment is a small business you can actively help—like getting its product into stores. He highlights Nona Pia's, a vinegar brand he backed that landed over $1M from a billionaire. He also warns that P2P lending platforms (where people lend to each other online) are vulnerable to price-comparison sites that undercut them.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

David Chilton shared his insights on investing and writing during the podcast Invest Like the Best. His core philosophy: maintain an actively curious "blitzkrieg" mindset and build deep connections through traditional methods like phone calls. A key takeaway: Chilton, known for his bestseller The We

~9 min full read · 6 sections
Deep Analysis

Here is the English translation of the provided Chinese investment research notes, following all specified rules.

At a Glance

David Chilton is the author of the Canadian bestseller The Wealthy Barber and a former investor on the Canadian version of Shark Tank, Dragon’s Den. The main thread of this interview is how Chilton applies a "blitzkrieg" style of proactivity, curiosity, and deep-dive research across writing, marketing, investing, and business operations. The most significant judgment of the entire episode: Chilton believes that if his sole goal were to make money, he would invest 100% in small businesses he can influence, rather than in public market stocks. This is because, in small businesses, investors can directly create value through operations and resource connections—something impossible in public markets.

Writing & Marketing: The "Counter-Intuitive" Art Driven by Testing and Data

Chilton argues that successful non-fiction writing is not about talent, but about extreme testing and data validation of reader psychology.

  • Testing is Core: Chilton's writing methodology stems from the unexpected success of The Wealthy Barber. Before the manuscript was finished, he gave it to 12 "target audience" members (his slow-pitch softball teammates) for feedback. Based on their input ("11/12 people wanted to know the same thing"), he did extensive rewrites. This cemented his belief that testing is more important than expert opinion (three financial experts disliked his book).
  • Disrupting Industry Conventions: Through testing, Chilton found many publishing industry "habits" to be wrong:
  • Dedication Page: 85% of readers read it. It should be used to show personality and engage the reader, not to write "To my wife."
  • Foreword: Over 90% of readers dislike forewords because they are often "half-hearted" and inconsistent with the author's style. Chilton argues: "You wouldn't have another singer sing the first song on your album."
  • Acknowledgments: Should be placed at the end of the book, not the beginning. Chilton asks rhetorically: "Who wants the beginning of their book to be something they hope readers skip?"
  • Chapter Length: Data clearly shows that readers (especially millennial men) prefer short chapters. Authors should cater to this demand.
  • The Power of "Why": Chilton emphasizes writing a short (about 1.5 pages) and powerful "introduction" that answers "Why are you the one to write this book?". This is not only the core of the book but also the best marketing material. He observes that if someone cannot clearly answer this question, it likely means they don't truly care about the subject.

Investment Philosophy: From Passive Indexing to "Blitzkrieg" Deep Research

Chilton's investment philosophy is "primarily passive, supplemented by active." The active portion focuses on a few, extremely deep opportunities, using a "blitzkrieg" style of phone research to gain an information edge.

  • Core Framework: Chilton allocates most of his assets to low-cost index funds, practicing the principles from his book. However, he admits to allocating a "reasonable" portion of his net worth to a very small number of high-risk, high-reward individual stock picks.
  • "Blitzkrieg" Deep Research: Chilton's active investing method is highly unique. He has only done this level of deep research three times in his life, spending hundreds of hours each time. The method includes:
  • Omnichannel Information Gathering: Reading all relevant books, industry reports, and historical articles (e.g., every Economist article on Gabon or Mongolia).
  • Phone Research: Chilton firmly believes phone calls are far superior to emails because people are more focused on the phone. He will directly call company CEOs, CFOs, political officials, embassies, IMF officials, accounting firm partners, etc., to build an information network.
  • Finding "Forced Selling" Opportunities: He specifically focuses on opportunities created by non-fundamental reasons for selling, such as index deletions or dividend cancellations, seeing this as a time to gain a huge margin of safety. He cites the example of Pan Ocean (a Gabonese oil company), which was undervalued due to geopolitical concerns and was eventually acquired for $58, while his cost basis was between $5 and $8.
  • Risk and Self-Awareness: Chilton candidly admits to making serious mistakes. He mentions a stock where 12 friends pointed out his error. Internally agreeing with them, he refused to sell due to the "endowment effect" and "wishful thinking," eventually exiting only when the stock price fell back near his cost. His lesson: One must actively act as one's own "devil's advocate" and strive to prove oneself wrong.

Small Business Investing: "Permanent Equity" That Creates Value

Chilton believes that for investors who can dedicate time, small business investing offers the highest returns because investors can directly create value, rather than just "betting" on a stock price increase.

  • Source of Value Creation: Unlike investing in public stocks, when investing in small businesses (like the 22 companies he invested in on Dragon's Den), Chilton can:
  • Introduce Distribution Channels: Use his network to get products into large retailers (e.g., UNFI, Whole Foods).
  • Provide Strategic Guidance: Share marketing, packaging, and pricing insights "stolen" from other industries.
  • Personally Participate in Operations: For example, he had his daughter drive to US supermarkets to take photos and analyze competitor pricing and shelf placement.
  • Negative Screening Checklist: Chilton will immediately pass on an investment for two reasons:

1. Founder's Lack of Attention to Detail: e.g., spelling errors on packaging. He believes "execution is everything."

2. No Marketing Plan: Many founders only say "the product will go viral" without actual customer acquisition cost (CAC) calculations or marketing budget plans.

  • A Sober View on Fintech: Chilton believes the "fintech revolution" has become a "fintech consolidation." Banks, with their customer base and cost-of-capital advantages, will ultimately be the winners. He specifically points out that P2P lending platforms are easily disrupted by the "comparison website" model, as capital providers can bypass the platform and offer loans at lower rates directly. Regarding robo-advisors, he finds their questionnaires poorly designed and is more interested in the next generation of AI-driven smart financial planning tools.

Position Moves

Position Guest's Stance Key Data
Pan Ocean Bullish (Closed, highly successful) Buy price $5-$8, acquisition price $58.
Nona Pia's (Balsamic vinegar company) Bullish (Holding) Received over $1 million investment from Canadian billionaire Jimmy Patterson.
An unnamed Mongolian gold exploration company Bullish (Holding) Has already spent hundreds of hours on "blitzkrieg" research.
An unnamed Canadian coal/gold company Neutral (Previously lost money, later spun off gold company) Initially invested via a broker, performed poorly.
Lending Club (and similar platforms) Risk Warning Believes its 4%-5% spread will be eroded by the "comparison website" model.

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. Testing is more important than expert opinion (David Chilton): His The Wealthy Barber was rejected by three financial experts but loved by 12 "target audience" members (his slow-pitch softball teammates). He has since believed that directly testing your target market is more effective than relying on any authority.

2. The foreword is a "half-hearted" poison (David Chilton): Over 90% of readers dislike forewords because they are often reluctant, stylistically inconsistent "junk." "You wouldn't have another singer sing the first song on your album."

3. Investing in small businesses is the highest-return method (David Chilton): If his sole goal were to make money, he would invest 100% in small businesses he can influence. You can directly create value (introduce channels, provide strategy), not just "bet" on a stock price.

4. "Forced selling" is the biggest opportunity (David Chilton): When a stock is forced to be sold by funds for non-fundamental reasons (e.g., kicked out of an index, dividend cancelled), its price can fall far below intrinsic value, creating a prime opportunity for a huge margin of safety.

5. Phone research is the core weapon of the "blitzkrieg" (David Chilton): All his deep research is done via phone calls because people are more focused and provide more information. He will directly call CEOs, IMF officials, embassies, etc., to build an information network.

6. "Why" is the litmus test for all passion (David Chilton): If you cannot answer "Why are you doing this?" in a short, powerful way, you likely don't truly care about it. This "introduction" is not only the core of the book but also the best marketing material.

7. The fintech revolution has become a fintech consolidation (David Chilton): Banks, with their customer base and cost-of-capital advantages, will ultimately be the winners. P2P lending platforms are easily disrupted by the "comparison website" model, as capital providers can bypass the platform.

8. Actively play your own "devil's advocate" (David Chilton): He once refused to sell a stock despite knowing he was wrong, due to the "endowment effect" and "wishful thinking." His lesson: You must actively seek evidence to prove yourself wrong, not to prove yourself right.