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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast18 May 2021Source: joincolossus.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Brent Beshore - Learnings from a Year of Unexpected Events - [Invest Like the Best, EP. 226]

In plain words

This interview covers how the small-business M&A market is booming post-COVID, but labor shortages are the real bottleneck. Brent Beshore says government stimulus made markets risk-insensitive again, and Biden's proposed capital gains tax hike (tax on selling a business) is pushing owners to sell fast. Key holdings: a pool company seeing record demand but can't find workers; Pentair (pool equipment maker) struggling to keep up; an aerospace firm that actually improved during the pandemic; and an unnamed medical-tech firm repurposing old tech for mobile use (e.g., sports fields, police cars).

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Brent Beshore reflected on his investment experience since the pandemic in the Invest Like the Best program. His core view: the pandemic unexpectedly fueled a bull market, but current inflation and labor shortages have become key challenges. An important conclusion: investment should focus on compan

~9 min full read · 8 sections
Deep Analysis

At a Glance

Brent Beshore (Founder of Permanent Equity Fund) and Patrick O'Shaughnessy review investment lessons from the past year of the pandemic. Beshore's core assessment is that the small business M&A market is currently in a phase of "the highest transaction velocity in history," but labor shortages have become a scarcer resource than capital, fundamentally altering the investment logic of traditional businesses.


Why the Pandemic Unexpectedly Fueled a Bull Market

Beshore argues that government intervention was the core driver behind the economy's shift from "extreme pessimism" to "risk insensitivity."

  • Before the pandemic, signs of "risk insensitivity" had already emerged in the market—investors were paying higher prices and using higher leverage.
  • After the pandemic broke out, capital markets froze, and private markets saw "almost no normal transactions."
  • By July 2020, the market had quickly returned to a state of "risk insensitivity."
  • Key data: The money supply has been diluted by 20-25% since the last discussion.

> "Everyone pre-COVID was becoming risk insensitive. I had one person in January of last year tell me that he saw signs of nothing on the horizon."

Beshore notes that Biden's proposed doubling of the capital gains tax is triggering an "unprecedented" wave of selling—small business owners face a doubled tax burden if they sell their life's work, leading a large number of sellers to rush to complete transactions before the policy takes effect.


Labor: A Scarcer Resource Than Capital

Beshore observes that labor shortages have become the core bottleneck for traditional business growth, with an impact far exceeding capital allocation issues.

Supply-Demand Imbalance in the Pool Industry

  • Historical comparison: During the 2008 crisis, the Phoenix pool market saw sales plunge by 91%
  • Post-pandemic demand surge: Staying at home + inability to use public pools + shifting disposable income created a "perfect storm"
  • Current state: Those with 20–40 years of experience all say they have "never seen a market like this"
  • Key constraint: Labor is the only bottleneck — if labor were sufficient, revenue could quadruple

Structural Changes in the Labor Market

Factor Impact
Young people unwilling to enter skilled trades Continuous contraction in skilled labor supply
Government subsidies (during the pandemic) Some workers chose not to work
Reduced immigration Further compression of labor supply
Aging existing skilled workers Retirement wave approaching

Beshore believes that corporate training capabilities will become a long-term competitive advantage — companies that can "recruit from other industries and teach them the skills" will prevail.

> "One of the opportunities that we're getting ready to partner on... have a very robust training program. We think that's a huge long-term competitive advantage is they can out-compete because they can out-train."

Implications for Investment Decisions

  • Labor dependency becomes a key evaluation dimension: Beshore notes that this makes him "more cautious" about businesses with high labor dependency
  • Pricing strategy trade-offs: Under inflationary pressure, Permanent Equity chooses to "only raise prices enough to cover cost increases" rather than maximizing short-term profits — a reflection of its long-term holding strategy

Transaction Process: From Science to Art

Beshore elaborates on Permanent Equity's unique "phased specialization" transaction model, which stands in stark contrast to traditional PE.

Differences from Traditional PE

Dimension Traditional PE Permanent Equity
Staffing Partners handle the entire process Specialists dedicated to each phase
Leverage High leverage Minimal use of debt
Holding Period 3-5 years Indefinite holding
Deal Sourcing Casting a wide net Precision targeting after deep research

Key Phases

1. Relationship Building: Deeply understand the seller's psychology, fears, and aspirations

2. Preliminary Offer: Based on sufficient information, commit to "if what you say is true, we will not change the offer"

3. Due Diligence: Distinguish between "exploratory" and "confirmatory" due diligence

4. Negotiation: The core is "setting the right framework for the best long-term outcome," not squeezing out every penny

5. Post-Closing Incentive Design: Tailored to the company's culture, avoiding "overcomplication"

Beshore emphasizes that the worst negotiation mistake is "overcomplicating things" — he shared a lesson learned: once designed a structure where the seller became the largest creditor, only to see the seller start running the business like a creditor (risk-averse, prioritizing debt repayment), ultimately forcing a buyback of the debt at a discount.


Talent Strategy: From Reactive to Proactive

Beshore believes the greatest improvement over the next five years lies in talent acquisition—Permanent Equity has established a dedicated talent role, treating it as an "internal top-tier recruiting agency."

At a Glance

  • Small businesses "do not deliberately stay small"—but top talent typically does not actively choose to join them.
  • Permanent Equity offers an "ecosystem": from VP → COO/CFO → CEO → managing one's own portfolio.
  • Currently, one portfolio partner manages revenue between $60 million and $200 million.

Recruitment Strategy

  • Candidates need to feel "horizontal compensation plus more optionality and upside."
  • Emphasize that "it is easier to win in a less competitive arena."
  • Provide opportunities for "unlimited learning and growth."

Changes in the Opportunity Set

Beshore states that his excitement about the current opportunity set is "far greater than five years ago"—despite higher absolute valuations.

  • Expanded target company range: from $2.5–3 million in free cash flow to $5–7 million, and currently negotiating a deal involving $35 million in free cash flow
  • Core competency shifting from "finding good companies" to "helping companies grow"—building deep expertise in marketing, finance, technology, operations, and other areas
  • Establishing long-term relationships with sellers: the largest current deal has been under negotiation for 3.5 years, during which the seller's scale has doubled

Mentioned Positions

Position Guest Stance Key Data
Pentair (Pool Equipment Supplier) Risk Warning Difficulty meeting delivery demand
Permanent Equity's Pool Company Bullish Phoenix market, sales down 91% in 2008, current demand "unprecedented"
Permanent Equity's Aerospace Company Bullish (Long-term) Team efficiency improved by "two levels" during the pandemic, expected five-year financial performance positively impacted by the pandemic
Unnamed Medical/Defense Technology Company Bullish (Under Negotiation) Repurposing century-old technology for the mobile era, applicable to sports fields and police vehicles

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. Beshore believes the current small business M&A market is experiencing "the highest transaction velocity ever" — the shift from "virtually no deals" to "being able to pick almost any number of deals" is unprecedented in its intensity.

2. Beshore points out that labor shortages are more severe than capital scarcity — in the pool business, "revenue could quadruple if labor were sufficient," but skilled technicians require 8–12 years to train.

3. Beshore argues that corporate training capabilities will become a long-term competitive moat — companies that "can outperform competitors through better training" will win, requiring the establishment of an in-house "quasi-vocational school" system.

4. Beshore emphasizes that the core of negotiation is not squeezing out every penny, but "setting the right framework for the best long-term outcome" — he shares a cautionary tale: an overly complex debt structure caused the seller to run the business like a creditor, ultimately forcing a discounted buyback.

5. Beshore believes the pandemic was a "gift" for some businesses — his aerospace company saw team efficiency improve by "two levels" during the crisis, and the five-year financial performance is expected to be positive as a result, prompting the reflection: "Why do we need a crisis to become excellent?"

6. Beshore proposes that Permanent Equity's "phased specialization" model is fundamentally different from traditional PE — the deal process is broken into stages such as relationship building, negotiation, and due diligence, with each stage handled by specialists rather than a single partner overseeing the entire process.

7. Beshore judges that Biden's capital gains tax proposal is triggering an "unprecedented" wave of sellers — small business owners face a doubling of tax liability if they sell their life's work, leading a flood of sellers to rush deals before the policy takes effect.

8. Beshore believes that Permanent Equity's talent system offers a unique career path — from VP to COO/CFO to CEO to managing one's own portfolio (one current partner oversees revenue ranging from $60 million to $200 million), a trajectory extremely rare in traditional PE.