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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast24 Nov 2020Source: traffic.libsyn.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

RRE Ventures - RRE Ventures - Raju Rishi, Nikita Singareddy, Jason Black - [Invest Like the Best, EP.201]

In plain words

RRE Ventures partners discuss why healthcare is a huge investment opportunity: the system is broken with opaque pricing, data silos, and massive waste. COVID and new regulations are unlocking change, especially data sharing. They are bullish on three areas: Bend Financial (health savings accounts), Nebula Genomics (blockchain for patient-owned genetic data), and GoodRx (drug price comparison). These companies target the core problems of cost and transparency.

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At a Glance

Three partners at RRE Ventures (Raju Rishi, Nikita Singareddy, Jason Black) discussed healthcare investing in November 2020. The core thesis is that massive pricing, data, and process distortions exist in the healthcare system; technology (especially interoperability) and regulation (catalyzed by COVID) are breaking the deadlock, creating structural opportunities for early-stage investors. The most weighty judgment of the entire video: Healthcare is the "ultimate compounding of principal-agent problems" (Raju Rishi), where consumers and payers are completely disconnected. The biggest unlocking step is "interoperability," after which the "Cambrian explosion" of the application layer will follow.

Why Invest in Healthcare? — Four Structural "Green Lights"

The three partners use a systematic framework to screen sectors, and healthcare hits every mark.

Massive market, underpenetrated by technology. Healthcare is a $3.6 trillion industry, with 133 million Americans suffering from at least one chronic disease. It is the largest employer, with 180,000 healthcare workers and 54,000 companies with more than 10 employees. Data comparison: The entire U.S. CRM software market (e.g., Salesforce) is only $26 billion.

Technology waves (Internet, Mobile, Cloud) have not deeply impacted healthcare. The three partners believe these three technology waves sequentially reshaped the music industry (Napster → iTunes → Spotify), but healthcare remains in the "newbie village." The fourth trend, "Consumerization," is beginning to impact healthcare.

Extreme fragmentation ("If you've seen one hospital system, you've seen one hospital system"). Data silos, a pile of customized software, and huge opportunities for standardization and integration.

Massive waste, huge room for efficiency improvement. Annual waste data: $210 billion (unnecessary services) + $190 billion (administrative costs) + $130 billion (inefficient delivery) + $105 billion (excessive pricing) + $75 billion (fraud) + $55 billion (missed prevention opportunities). Investor note: The report uses the above data to argue its driving logic, but this is a classic "bigger problem, bigger opportunity" narrative. Readers should calibrate the difficulty of real-world implementation.

The "Black Box" of Pricing and the "Cracks" in U.S. Healthcare

Core contradiction: Healthcare is the "ultimate compounding of principal-agent problems" (Raju Rishi). Consumers (patients) are completely ignorant of prices and completely disconnected from payers (employers, insurers). Key mechanism: Employer-provided insurance began during World War I, and consumers are shielded from real costs by a "shield."

Two "cracks" on the consumer side:

1. Surge in High Deductible Plans. The out-of-pocket ratio for consumers has risen from roughly 8% historically to 33%. Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) are like the 401k of healthcare, turning consumers into "savers" who actively compare prices. RRE has invested in Bend Financial.

2. COVID's "wealth shock" to insurers. Jason Black points out that during the pandemic, insurers "collected premiums without paying claims, making a fortune." By analogy with auto insurers being forced to refund premiums, the government may intervene, forcing insurers to lower fees or increase transparency.

Ultimate manifestation of pricing distortion: An MRI can cost $250 or $6,000, with both coexisting in the same system. Hospital trade associations sue the government to refuse making the "Charge Master" public. Nikita Singareddy's judgment: Consumerization and government regulation working together mean price transparency is a long-term trend, which will disrupt business models that rely on "price opacity," benefiting "price comparison platforms" (e.g., GoodRx, TruePill, etc.).

Sequential Unlocking: Interoperability is the "First Domino"

The three partners propose a "sequential unlocking" framework: Healthcare innovation is not a parallel advance but "one big step + countless small steps."

Step One: Interoperability. Current dilemma: Patient downloads an app to manage a chronic disease → Doctor likes it but doesn't know how to connect to the EHR → IT department says "two-year wait" → Payer can't access data for value-based payment → Healthcare app companies spend 60% of their effort on integration. Three core barriers: HIPAA (privacy law, firewall), doctor requirement for "in-person visit" to bill, and complex cross-state credentialing.

COVID accelerated "Step One." Sudden policy changes: Telehealth reimbursed at the "in-person visit" rate, cross-state credentialing relaxed, HIPAA partially relaxed. "You let the genie out of the bottle, and you can't put it back in." (Raju Rishi) Also notes: Some policies (e.g., parity of telehealth reimbursement) may partially reverse due to efficacy disputes, but the "virtualization" trend is irreversible. Jason Black analogy: Healthcare data interoperability is at the "inflection point from on-premise servers to cloud computing." The cost of retrieving medical records is rapidly approaching zero, which will give rise to large-scale applications.

Remote Patient Monitoring: Three-way Fragmentation, Two Effective Scenarios

Nikita Singareddy distinguishes two concepts:

1. Consumer-level health monitoring (Wellness, e.g., Apple Watch, Fitbit): Patient-driven, used for self-education, not directly connected to doctors. Predicts explosive growth due to declining device costs and easier app certification.

2. Clinical-level Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM): Has a Medicare reimbursement code, only applicable for "actionable" scenarios.

Two effective scenarios for RPM:

  • Chronic disease patients (e.g., heart failure, diabetes, kidney disease): Only abnormal data that can trigger "action" is valuable; otherwise, doctors ignore it. Devices need to be simple (adapted for aging + non-technical users).
  • High-risk patients within 30 days of discharge ("30-day readmission" rule): Hospitals must bear the cost if a patient is readmitted for the same issue within 30 days. Therefore, hospitals proactively send RPM devices home to avoid huge fines.

"Ultimate state" prediction (Raju Rishi): After data interoperability, combined with genetic sequences and anonymized data, "precision medicine" becomes possible (e.g., a certain cancer drug is more effective for a specific region/ethnicity) rather than today's "one-size-fits-all" approach. Jason Black adds: This requires "machine-scale data mining," not human manual "point-to-point selection."

Clinical Trials: Opportunities to Reform Three "Ancient" Links

The three partners believe clinical trials have systemic problems in three areas:

Link Current Status Opportunity
Patient Recruitment Very inefficient "volunteer + paper-based" model, often recruiting 18-22 year old college students, poor population representativeness. A single university hospital has 500+ trials simultaneously, each with dozens of specific parameters, requiring "point-to-point" intervention. Use data (including genetics) for "precision population targeting," not manual matching.
Workflow Data is not cloud-based or real-time; manually collected and periodically aggregated into Excel spreadsheets. Cloud-based, real-time, quickly detect abnormal signals or adjust participant demographics.
Data Utilization Individual data lies dormant, cannot be reused. Companies like Nebula Genomics use blockchain to give patients ownership of their own genetic data, with pharma companies paying to access it, similar to "data version of Ad Tech" — patients should receive a share of data monetization proceeds.

The three partners note: The pandemic accelerated trial accumulation in 2020, but it is impossible to determine whether the "acceleration" will lead to compromised safety/quality. "2020 itself is a large-scale experiment."

Physician Ecosystem: The Overlooked "Super Users" and Systemic Squeeze

Striking data: On average, doctors spend only one-third of their time on patient care and two-thirds on administrative tasks (filling out EHRs, insurance verification, cross-state licensing, etc.). The three partners believe: This is a huge opportunity overlooked by entrepreneurs — "Improving the doctor experience almost equals improving the efficiency of the entire healthcare system."

Core conflict: Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems (e.g., Epic, Cerner) are "facing the IT department" in billion-dollar deals, not "facing the doctor." UI is outdated (1990s style) and conflicts with doctors' work habits due to "usability" issues. Result: Doctors "cannot use" the system, leading to widespread "physician burnout."

Three improvement directions:

  • Speech-to-Text: Let doctors dictate medical records instead of manual entry.
  • "Google Glass" style observation + third-party recording: Automatically record doctor-patient interaction and generate medical records.
  • Robotic Process Automation (RPA): Automatically verify insurance and codes, alleviating doctors' operational burden as "small business owners."

The partners' judgment: Simply improving the UI can reduce EHR time by 33%-40% (specific company data). If the physician population is lost due to "burnout," the entire healthcare system faces a human resource crisis. Therefore, the "doctor experience" is a high-value, persistently undervalued sector.

Positions Mentioned

Position Guest Attitude (Bullish/Caution/Neutral) Key Data
Bend Financial Invested, Bullish Focuses on Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)
Nebula Genomics Bullish (model-driven) Genetic data + blockchain, patient owns data
Flatiron Health Cited as successful case (no stated position) Focuses on oncology data interoperability, drives specific drug matching
GoodRx, TruePill, RX Defined Nominated (price transparency direction) Consumer price comparison platforms
AtitalCare Nominated (remote monitoring + teleconsultation) Video + wearable device monitoring
Epic, Cerner Caution (product direction wrong) Facing IT, not doctors; outdated UI; root cause of "physician burnout"

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. "Healthcare is the ultimate compounding of principal-agent problems." (Raju Rishi) — Consumers are completely unaware of prices, payers (employers/insurers) are completely shielded, and incentive structures are extremely distorted.

2. "You let the genie out of the bottle, and you can't put it back in." (Raju Rishi, a metaphor for COVID policy shocks) — Telehealth, relaxed cross-state licensing, and HIPAA relaxation are three irreversible policies. At least 10-20 years of progress have been compressed into one year.

3. "Interoperability is the 'first unlock'; after that, healthcare will have its 'Cambrian explosion.'" (Jason Black) — The cost of retrieving medical records is dropping from "thousands of dollars" to "pennies," which will spawn numerous vertical applications.

4. "Doctors spend 2/3 of their time on administration and 1/3 on patient care." (Raju Rishi) — Improving the doctor experience = directly recovering more than 50% of potential productivity, a structural opportunity.

5. "An MRI can cost $250 or $6,000, with both coexisting in the same system." (Nikita Singareddy) — Price transparency is "fertile soil" for entrepreneurs. Hospitals even sue the government to demand prices not be made public.

6. "Clinical trial recruitment is not a 'human-scale' problem; it's a 'machine-scale' problem." (Jason Black) — A single university hospital has 500+ trials, each with dozens of parameters. Only data plus algorithms can achieve precision matching.

7. "When consumers' out-of-pocket ratio goes from 8% to 33%, behavior changes." (Nikita Singareddy) — High deductible plans and HSAs are reshaping consumer behavior, giving rise to "price comparison" and "savings" models.

8. "Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM) is only applicable for 'actionable' scenarios; otherwise, doctors will ignore the data." (Raju Rishi) — Distinguish between "consumer-level health monitoring" and "clinical-level RPM." "Endless" data only increases the burden on doctors; there must be an ML layer to "extract signals."

~12 min full read
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