StoneValueTrek · Value Investing Research
See what the world's top investorsare buying and saying
StoneValueTrek aggregates the holdings, letters, and earnings calls of Buffett-style value investors and distills them into AI summaries — no wading through English filings, no hunting around.
01Insights
Investor letters & research, distilled into AI key points
02Holdings
Which US stocks these managers bought / sold each quarter (SEC 13F)
03Stocks
AI summaries of earnings calls: results, management, Q&A
Sourced from SEC EDGAR · manager sites · Motley Fool, auto-updated by AI · 9 managers, 139 reports indexed
Paint by numbers
Author:
This report discusses the phenomenon of industrial bidders exploiting market neglect and undervalued timing to launch opportunistic acquisitions of companies in consolidating industries. The core argument is that while long-term shareholders may feel frustrated by premium acquisitions (where the pre
Disney
Author:
Since its listing in 1957, Disney has achieved significant excess returns by continuously channeling its classic IP into every generation of distribution channels, from theaters to streaming. The report shows that its total return since listing has reached 1,749,006% (annualized 15%), far exceeding
AI and the Material World (May 2026)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Alex Duffy
This report examines the "too big to fail" risk of the AI investment theme from the perspective of "The Capital Cycle." The core argument is that AI-related capital expenditures now account for over 40% of US GDP growth, while non-AI capital expenditure has declined in absolute terms year-on-year. A
AI Disruptees (May 2026)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Charles Carter
The report "The Capital Cycle" explores the potential threat of new technologies (especially AI) to the moats of information companies. Its core argument is that the market performs poorly in predicting industry winners and losers (e.g., the TMT bubble and the 2020-21 "Everything Bubble"). A study b
Starboard Value LP Letter to FLS Board
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Starboard Value has sent a letter to the Board of Directors of Flowserve Corporation, stating that as a significant shareholder, it believes the company has a high-quality business but is constrained by inconsistent execution, resulting in a significant valuation discount relative to peers. Flowserv
Ed Conway on ‘The Material World’ – Spring Drinks 2026
Author:
Hosking Partners LLP publishes a regulatory and legal disclosure statement, clarifying that it is authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number OC382151), registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an investment adviser under the
Syncona
Author: Omar Malik
Hosking Partners argues that the returns from biopharmaceutical venture capital are concentrated in the late-stage pre-commercialization phase, making it difficult for traditional 10-year fund structures to cover the long cycles of early-stage investments. Syncona, benefiting from the permanent capi
Q1 2026 - ESG and Active Ownership Report
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Hosking Partners' Q1 2026 ESG and Active Ownership report focuses on themes such as geopolitics, deglobalization, energy, and defense, emphasizing a bottom-up integrated approach to uncover opportunities that may be overlooked by conventional ESG classifications. The core view is to avoid rigid top-
Business Breakdowns Podcast - Altius Minerals
Author: Luke Bridgeman
This summary from Hosking Partners LLP primarily outlines its regulatory status and service restrictions. The firm is regulated by the UK FCA and the US SEC (under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940), and is registered with the South African FSCA as a financial services provider (FSP no. 45612). Th
Vanguard
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This research report by Worldly Partners is not investment advice. It primarily explores why Vanguard Group, due to its mutual ownership structure and "at-cost" operating model, cannot be assessed under traditional valuation frameworks, and constructs a hypothetical valuation based on limited disclo
Starboard Value LP Letter to LW Board
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starboard_value has submitted a report to the Lamb Weston board, pointing out that while the company holds an industry-leading position (high barriers to entry, pricing power), management missteps have led to market share loss, declining profitability, and a loss of investor confidence. The report's
Starboard Value LP Letter to DT Management and Board
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Starboard Value, as a major shareholder of Dynatrace (DT), believes the company is a high-quality, durable observability platform. Enterprise-level AI applications will drive accelerated revenue growth, while operational efficiency improvements can lead to significant margin and cash flow expansion.
Asian Investing Summit - MOI Global
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Hosking Partners LLP (registration number OC382151, VAT number 167151705) issued this regulatory and legal disclosure summary, which clarifies its compliance status and client access restrictions in major global markets. The report argues that the company strictly limits its service scope: in the UK
First Impressions: Q&A with Michael Godfrey
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Hosking Partners welcomed its fifth portfolio manager, Michael Godfrey, in January 2026. He reviews the global portfolio through the capital cycle framework, describing the portfolio as a unique collection of over 350 stocks linked by capital cycle logic, with no benchmark-driven redundant holdings.
Horizon Kinetics
In Memory of Murray Stahl — A Message from the Board
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Horizon Kinetics announced the passing of its Chairman and CEO, Murray Stahl, and expressed profound condolences. Murray was the soul of the firm, having built a world-class investment institution. His strategic insight, integrity, and discipline laid a solid foundation for the company. The board ha
Ferrari
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The report analyzes Ferrari N.V.'s exceptional investment performance and long-term valuation growth since its IPO in 2015. The core thesis is that Ferrari has achieved sustained excess returns through a fusion of world-class racing engineering, extreme high performance, and highly personalized, art
Aircraft Leasing Lift-Off (March 2026)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Tom Wharram
Commercial aircraft production peaked in 2018 (Boeing and Airbus combined delivered 1,606 aircraft), plummeted 55% in 2020, and remained approximately 30% below peak in 2024. However, the current production downturn is not due to overcapacity, but rather a combination of factors including the 737 MA
Masters of the Air (March 2026)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Ben Slingsby
This report examines the history and investment outlook of the European aerospace industry. The core argument is that engine OEMs (such as Rolls-Royce, Safran, and MTU) will experience sustained growth due to long-term supply constraints (industry oligopoly and post-capital-cycle consolidation). Key
Q1 2026 - Quarterly Report Commentary
Author: Luke Bridgeman
In the first quarter of 2026, Hosking Partners' strategy posted a net return of 3.2%, versus a benchmark return of -3.2%; over the past twelve months, the net return was 39.1%, compared to the benchmark's 20.0%. The strategy overweighted beneficiaries of AI capital expenditure (such as memory compan
Voss Capital Q1 2026 Letter to Partners
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Voss Capital's Q1 2026 letter states that the Voss Value Fund posted a net return of -11.4% (Russell 2000 +0.9%), primarily due to extreme K-shaped divergence in the market: the AI/semiconductor-driven momentum factor rose approximately 40% year-to-date, while the "quality" factor fell 30%. The semi
Money of Mine
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Hosking Partners LLP’s regulatory and legal disclosure document outlines its global compliance framework: the firm is authorized and regulated by the UK FCA, registered with the US SEC as an investment adviser (serving only "accredited investors" as defined under Rule 501(a) and "qualified purchaser
Babcock International - March 2026
Author: Omar Malik
Hosking Partners' report explores the strategic importance of UK defence engineering services provider Babcock International against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions. The core view is that Babcock, as an operational turnaround candidate, has completed balance sheet restructuring and improved co
Starboard Value LP
Starboard Value LP Letter to KMX Incoming CEO
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Starboard Value, as a shareholder of CarMax (with an investment of approximately $350 million), wrote a letter to the new CEO Keith Barr, pointing out that the company has a differentiated omnichannel model, with about 90% of vehicles sourced from customer trade-ins and a strong cost advantage. Howe
Starboard Value LP Letter to LW Board and CEO
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Starboard Value sent a letter to Lamb Weston's management, arguing that while the company has made progress in pricing discipline, volume recovery, and capacity reduction, there remains significant room for value creation. It recommends expanding the current annualized cost reduction plan of at leas
The saga of Saga Plc
Author: Django Davidson
Hosking Partners' research report The saga of Saga Plc proposes a simple framework for screening "10x baggers" using a forward P/E ratio close to 1x, arguing that such opportunities possess structural advantages in low-competition environments. The report uses Saga Plc as an example, noting that the
Bireme Capital
The End of American Exceptionalism
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This report from Bireme Capital, titled "The End of American Exceptionalism," argues that the institutional advantages of the United States are weakening, while stock market valuations remain at historical highs, a divergence that is unsustainable. The report notes that its managed Fundamental Value
Star Mica: Finding value in occupied assets
Author: Omar Malik
Hosking Partners notes that Japan is currently one of the most attractive investment opportunities, with an overweight allocation in its global portfolio covering 73 stocks, a median price-to-book ratio of 1.4x, and a median market capitalization of $3.9 billion. A newly discovered hidden gem, Star
The Tyranny of the Index (February 2026)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Alex Duffy
This report draws on data from the Global Investment Returns Yearbook to explore the long-term returns of U.S. stocks and the current concentration risk. Key takeaways: From 1900 to 2024, the real annualized return of U.S. stocks was 8.5%, but cyclical fluctuations were violent—over the 20 years end
AI eats software? (February 2026)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Tom Wharram
This report draws an analogy between the capital cycle story of the Jacquard Loom and the current software industry, exploring the disruption of AI on software companies. Core view: software production capacity is increasing, competition is intensifying, and pricing power is weakening. Since the end
In the Company of Mavericks
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Hosking Partners LLP is a limited partnership investment management firm registered in the United Kingdom, regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), and also registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an Investment Adviser. It is authorized as a Financial Service
Q4 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership Report
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Hosking Partners, in its Q4 2025 ESG and Active Ownership Report, notes that despite shifting global market conditions, the portfolio delivered strong annual performance, with a focus on "hidden ESG" initiatives. The report first introduces Steel Dynamics, a company that, while not meeting tradition
Starboard Value LP Letter to RIOT CEO & Executive Chairman
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Starboard Value wrote to Riot Platforms management, emphasizing that although the company has launched an AI/HPC data center strategy and signed a small-scale proof-of-concept transaction with AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.), its stock price has significantly lagged behind peers that have signed
Starboard Value LP Letter to TRIP Board & CEO
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Starboard Value, a major shareholder owning over 9% of Tripadvisor, sent a letter to the board expressing extreme dissatisfaction with the company's long-term value destruction. Since CEO Matt Goldberg took office on July 1, 2022, Tripadvisor's stock price has fallen nearly 50%, underperforming the
Capital Account Book (February 2026)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Charles Carter
This note discusses the first book published by Marathon Asset Management in 2004, co-authored by Edward Chancellor and European portfolio manager Charles Carter. The core argument revolves around the capital cycle investment framework, emphasizing the role of supply-side dynamics—such as excessive
Formula One
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This report uses Formula One as a case study to analyze its long-term investment value. If Bernie Ecclestone had held the 100-year commercial rights, acquired for approximately $360 million in 2001, until June 30, 2025, Liberty Media's market capitalization would be around $24 billion (of which the
4th Quarter 2025 Commentary
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Texas Pacific Land Corp. (TPL) recently reached an agreement with Bolt Data & Energy to develop a large-scale data center campus on its land. TPL provided one-third of the $150 million financing and is responsible for water supply. Bolt's chairman is former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, with plans to ini
A Tale of Two Neighbours: The Tiger and the Lion
Author: Django Davidson
Hosking Partners report contrasts extreme valuation divergences between Indian and Sri Lankan stock markets: India's SENSEX trades at 24x P/E, the Nifty 500 has risen 383% cumulatively over the past 15 years (11% annualized), the market-cap-to-GDP ratio stands at 144%, approaching the 2007 highs and
Q4 2025 - Quarterly Report Commentary
Author: Jeremy Hosking
Hosking Partners achieved a net return of 7.2% in Q4 2025, outperforming the MSCI All Country World Index's 3.3%; full-year net return was 33.5%, with excess returns of 1114 bps. The report emphasizes the advantages of its diversified contrarian investment strategy (Capital Cycle): underweighting th
The Price of Time — Key Takeaways from Edward Chancellor's ‘The Price of Time’
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This report discusses Edward Chancellor's book The Price of Time, which centers on the history, philosophy, and modern monetary policy of interest rates. The core argument is that prolonged low interest rate policies are harmful, and it criticizes modern central banks for linking interest rates to i
Horizon Kinetics
2026 New Year Letter from Our Founders
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In his 2026 New Year letter, the founder of Horizon Kinetics points out that the private funds launched by the company in recent years (such as the real asset royalty fund, private securities trading, cryptocurrency mining, data centers, and AI companies) are not a departure from value investing, bu
Voss Capital Q4 2025 Letter to Partners
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Voss Capital reported a net return of -2.1%/-2.2% (net of fees) in Q4 2025, underperforming the Russell 2000 (+2.2%), Russell 2000 Value (+3.3%), and S&P 500 (+2.7%). As of December 31, 2025, the Voss Value Master Fund had a gross exposure of 158.7%, a delta-adjusted net long of 78.8%, a top 10 long
Bonsai Partners 2H 2025 Letter
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bonsai_partners disclosed in its H2 2025 investor letter that the Bonsai Partners Fund, LP delivered a net return of 7.5%, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index rose 11.0% over the same period. The report's core discussion centers on the distinction between "obvious moats" and "hidden moats." Obvious
Boxing Day Gift (December 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Robert Anstey
This report begins with the British Boxing Day tradition and discusses the capital cycle investment opportunities in the North American containerboard industry. The core thesis is that industry consolidation and rational capacity cuts are driving supply contraction, while demand has weakened to 2016
Job Lot on Sale (December 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Kai Chen
The Capital Cycle report explores investment opportunities in platforms with network effects during their early monetization phase. The core thesis is that the gap between value creation and value capture is key to predicting a company’s long-term returns. The report uses Kanzhun (which operates Bos
Churn Chat (December 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Charles Carter
This report, presented in the form of a fictional PonzAI board meeting, critically exposes the "Ponzi scheme" characteristics of AI infrastructure investment. CEO Stanley Churn acknowledges that the company has committed approximately $1.4 trillion to build 26 GW of capacity (equivalent to 20 nuclea
The investment case for diversification
Author: Luke Bridgeman
This report explores the value of diversification in the current market. Although Harry Markowitz referred to diversification as "the only free lunch in investing," market trends are leaning toward concentrated holdings: passive funds are increasingly concentrated, with technology, media, and teleco
Bonsai Partners
Bonsai Partners Graham & Doddsville Newsletter Interview
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This report is an interview with Andrew Rosenblum, founder and managing partner of bonsai_partners, published in Graham & Doddsville, exploring his investment philosophy and career. The core argument is that active management, when executed with thoughtful deliberation and careful discipline, can po
A Different Network Effect (November 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Ben Slingsby
The report explores a new type of network effect driven by AI development—electricity grids as a key bottleneck for AI data center (DC) construction. Their regulated asset base (RAB) growth rate has doubled to low double digits and will continue to rise over the next five years. Connection queue tim
Barbarous Relics (November 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Laura Fyfe
The report compares "Joneses" (high spenders pursuing status) with "Barbers" (low capital intensity, disciplined focus) to discuss capital cycles and investment opportunities. Core view: In emerging markets, Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan generated CNY 91 in market value growth per CNY 1 in capital e
Q3 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership Report
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Hosking Partners' Q3 2025 ESG & Active Ownership Report underscores the importance of long-term active shareholder engagement. As one of the top ten shareholders of Shelf Drilling, the firm's proactive push led to a substantial improvement in the offer price of the ADES acquisition. The report provi
TCI 致 Aena 董事会函
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TCI Fund writes to the Aena board, noting that the Spanish government is attempting to prevent Aena from implementing necessary tariff increases to support its approximately €10 billion regulated capital expenditure plan. According to Spanish corporate law, the board has a fiduciary duty to resist p
Cryptocurrency by the Numbers
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The report uses historical data to compare and analyze the value of cryptocurrencies. The core argument is: since the Federal Reserve was established in 1913, the purchasing power of the US dollar has lost 96.2%, while Bitcoin has a predetermined, unalterable inflation rate. Buying Bitcoin is essent
3rd Quarter 2025 Commentary
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This report examines the significant divergence between performance and market expectations over the 25-year period of the indexing era (since the rise of ETFs in 2000). Its core argument is that, despite passive investing surpassing active management in scale (as of the end of 2023) and the Informa
Q3 2025 - Quarterly Report Commentary
Author: Django Davidson
Hosking Partners’ Q3 2025 letter reports that its diversified global strategy delivered an absolute net return of 11%, with a quarterly excess return of 3.4%, year-to-date alpha of +6.1%, and alpha of +3.9% relative to the MSCI AC World over the past 12 months. The core argument is that global equit
PGM update
Author: Django Davidson
In its October 2025 PGM update report, Hosking Partners reiterated its investment view: platinum group metals (PGM) remain in the early stages of the cycle and may usher in a multi-year upcycle lasting up to a decade. South African platinum production has fallen from a peak of 5.4 million ounces in
AI: Mad Maths? (September 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Charles Carter
This report examines the AI investment boom from a capital cycle perspective, noting that current spending is enormous while the outlook for returns remains uncertain. Morgan Stanley estimates that cumulative investment in data centers from 2025 to 2028 will reach nearly $3 trillion (excluding energ
The Long Tail (September 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Tom Wharram
This research report examines the application of the Long Tail theory in investment and corporate strategy. Its core argument is that the internet enables companies to profit from previously overlooked niche markets through three key forces: lowering production barriers, reducing distribution costs,
Voss Capital Q3 2025 Letter to Partners
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Voss Capital's Q3 2025 letter notes that the Voss Value Fund and Offshore Fund delivered net returns of +5.0% and +4.9%, respectively, lagging the Russell 2000 (+12.4%), Russell 2000 Value (+12.6%), and S&P 500 (+8.3%). As of September 30, the Voss Value Master Fund had total exposure of 205.4%, net
African Allocator Podcast
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Hosking Partners LLP's report is a summary of its regulatory and legal disclosures. The core content states that the firm is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom, registered as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act in the United States (the Act d
Q2 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership Report
Author: Gwin Myerberg
Hosking Partners' ESG and Active Ownership Report for the second quarter of 2025 emphasizes unlocking corporate value in Japan through active engagement and stewardship management. The core argument is that the Japanese equity market offers investment opportunities due to low valuations—nearly half
Mucky Business (August 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Robert Anstey
In the North American municipal solid waste industry, listed companies have achieved annualized excess returns of 5-10% over the past decade, primarily due to landfill permitting barriers, the monopolistic characteristics of asset-intensive networks, inelastic demand, and pricing power from industry
Chinese Property Opportunity (August 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Kai Chen
This report examines three models of how global real estate markets have responded to crises: the United States transitioned from the 2008 crash into a high-profit oligopoly through industry consolidation; Japan experienced long-term fragmentation after the 1990s bubble burst, leading to deflation;
UK Stewardship Code
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Hosking Partners LLP (founded in 2013, managing $5.4 billion in assets as of April 25, 2025) has released its UK Stewardship Code compliance report, emphasizing that fiduciary duty, active ownership, and engagement are the foundation for creating long-term value. The firm adopts the Capital Cycle in
2nd Quarter 2025 Commentary
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This report, "What Are We Doing Now: Index Risk Aversion and the Return of Active Management, Part I," evaluates the return performance of ETFs since their inception, challenging the empirical foundation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The central thesis is that index investing has not delivered
Flywire's Flywheel — FinTech Fixing to Flip the Faulty Narrative
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This report discusses Voss Capital's investment analysis of the payment company Flywire (FLYW). The core view is that the market has significantly undervalued the company, with its stock price around $11, a valuation of only 2x sales and 3x EV/Gross Profit, far below its fundamental potential. The r
Japan Merger Mania (June 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Justin Hill
This report focuses on Japan's M&A boom, pointing out that multiple factors—including government regulation, investor pressure, and a shift in boardroom attitudes—are jointly pushing companies to improve capital efficiency. Core trends include increasing dividends and share buybacks to optimize bala
Greek Banking Odyssey (June 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Laura Fyfe
Greece's banking sector has undergone a profound capital cycle repair. After the sovereign debt crisis, the banks received three rounds of capital injections totaling €50 billion to survive. Subsequently, the industry consolidated from over forty institutions into four major banks—NBG, Alpha, Euroba
Voss Capital Q2 2025 Letter to Partners
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Voss Capital's Q2 2025 investor letter shows that the Voss Value Fund and Offshore Fund posted net returns of +1.0% and +0.6%, respectively, versus total returns of +8.5%, +5.0%, and +10.9% for the Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Value, and S&P 500 over the same period. As of June 30, the Voss Value Mast
Bonsai Partners 1H 2025 Letter
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Bonsai Partners Fund delivered a net return of 7.3% in the first half of 2025 (through June 30), outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index's 6.2%. The report's core argument emphasizes that investors often fall into "competitive obsession" (excessive focus on moats, market share), yet overlook th
Meeting the challenges of a changing world
Author: Omar Malik
Hosking Partners points out that the Japanese stock market presents investment opportunities due to low valuations and corporate governance reforms: as of June 30, 2025, its global equity fund had a 14.7% allocation to Japan, with nearly half of the approximately 3,600 companies on the Tokyo Stock E
Q2 2025 - Quarterly Report Commentary
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Hosking Partners delivered an alpha of 1.8% above the benchmark in Q2 2025, adding to the 0.3% alpha in Q1, bringing the relative performance over the past 12 months close to breakeven, despite the strategy's long-term underweight in the US and technology sectors (current underweight of 29%) while o
The AI Paradox: Capital Questions
Author: Django Davidson
Hosking Partners' report The AI Paradox: Capital Questions explores the investment paradox in the generative AI industry: despite OpenAI's ChatGPT achieving hundreds of millions of daily active users and driving productivity gains in areas such as software development, the industry's profit outlook
Sri Lanka: You Will Come Back for More
Author: Django Davidson
Hosking Partners, in its June 2025 report Sri Lanka: You'll Be Back for More, takes the emerging-market cyclical crisis as its entry point and argues that Sri Lanka's current economic distress presents a contrarian investment opportunity. The report cites Edward Chancellor's "seven fat years, seven
Platinum Bombed (May 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Alex Duffy
This report is centered on the capital cycle philosophy, advocating for identifying opportunities amid uncertainty and focusing on supply-side dynamics rather than demand-side factors. The report argues that the market’s pursuit of certainty often leads to concentrated positions and increased fragil
US Small Caps: Margin of Safety (May 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Tom Wharram
After the US election in November 2024, the market was initially optimistic about deregulation, tax cuts, and M&A. But six months later, tariff effects have become pronounced: the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen 15 points from the start of the year to 58, and an M&A boom has not materia
The Capital Cycle Way
Author: Omar Malik
Hosking Partners' May 2025 report outlines "The Capital Cycle Way," with the core argument citing Buffett's 1996 letter to shareholders: buying understandable businesses at reasonable prices that are certain to achieve significantly higher earnings over the next 5, 10, or 20 years. The report emphas
Metamorphosis
Author: Omar Malik
This report examines the capital cycle in the European chemical industry and argues that current market sentiment is excessively pessimistic, with stock prices trading below the cost of rebuilding factories. The core view is that as Europe reindustrializes, green demand grows, and new capacity addit
Q1 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership Report
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European chemical stocks are currently trading below the cost of rebuilding plants, reflecting extreme pessimism following the energy shock and inventory destocking. As the triple factors of European reindustrialization, green demand, and constrained new capacity converge, industry earnings and ROIC
Founder’s Story (May 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Neil Ostrer
This report discusses the core role of capital cycle analysis and management assessment in long-term equity investing. Since 1996, the Marathon team has conducted a total of 18,298 management meetings, which they consider the most effective investment activity. The central thesis is that management
1st Quarter 2025 Commentary
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This report discusses how portfolios should be positioned around the AI and data center investment cycle under persistent inflationary pressures. The core argument is that although market indices are heavily concentrated in information technology, portfolios have already naturally benefited from the
Bireme Capital
April 2025 Tariff Turmoil
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This Bireme Capital report focuses on the market turmoil triggered by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan in April 2025. The core view is that the U.S. stock market was previously overvalued and emotionally overheated, making it highly susceptible to negative shocks. The broad, heavy tariffs are es
Whitbread (March 2025)
Host: Edward ChancellorGuest: Tytus Zurawski
The UK hotel industry has faced supply contraction after the pandemic: from 2019 to 2021, the number of rooms fell from 715,000 to 685,000, the lowest since 2013, with approximately 70% of the lost supply permanently exiting due to conversion into residential properties. Travelodge (the second large
Voss Capital Q1 2025 Letter to Partners
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Voss Capital's Q1 2025 letter to investors shows that its Voss Value Fund and Offshore Fund both posted net returns of -7.3%, outperforming the Russell 2000 (-9.5%) and Russell 2000 Value (-7.7%), but underperforming the S&P 500 (-4.3%). As of March 31, the main fund had total exposure of 162.1%, ne
Horizon Kinetics
4th Quarter 2024 Commentary
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Year-end review: systemic risks and strategic opportunities in the 'Roaring Twenties', with focus on natural gas, water, and bitcoin.
2024年年终评论：分析了“咆哮的二十年代”中的系统性风险和战略机遇，重点关注天然气、水资源和比特币。
Horizon Kinetics
2025 New Year Letter from Our Founders
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In 2024, Bitcoin gained institutional recognition, with the SEC approving multiple Bitcoin ETFs, with total assets exceeding $110 billion, among which the iShares Bitcoin ETF became the 32nd largest ETF in the US with $55 billion in AUM. As a new asset class, Bitcoin's development speed is unprecede
2025 Active-Passive Investor Summit – Tripadvisor, Inc.
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This report is an investment analysis presentation on Tripadvisor, Inc. released by Starboard Value at the Active-Passive Investor Summit in October 2025. Based on publicly available information (including the company's filings with the SEC), the report discusses the current state and potential valu
2025 Active-Passive Investor Summit – Fluor Corporation
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This report is a discussion material on Fluor Corporation released by Starboard Value at the Active-Passive Investor Summit in October 2025. The main content of the report is a legal disclaimer, emphasizing that it is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or recomm
2025 Active-Passive Investor Summit – Starboard Value LP
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Starboard Value released a report at the 2025 Active-Passive Investor Summit, analyzing the investment value of BILL Holdings, Inc., Tripadvisor, Inc., and Fluor Corporation based on publicly available information. The core argument of the report is that the aforementioned companies have significant
Bonsai Partners 2H 2024 Letter
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The Bonsai Partners Fund, LP's H2 2024 investor letter discusses the double-edged sword effect of pattern recognition in investing: while it can narrow the opportunity set and improve success rates, widely known patterns (such as "the Uber for X") easily lead to high valuations, and as the model bec
Bireme Capital
Japan: Anchoring Bias Writ Large
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This report explores the long-term undervaluation of the Japanese stock market and its historical causes. The report notes that despite Japan being the world's fourth-largest economy, home to numerous high-tech companies (such as Sony, Toyota), and possessing strong governance metrics, its stock val
Bonsai Partners 1H 2024 Letter
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The report is the 2024 first-half investor letter of Bonsai Partners Fund, LP. The central theme advocates sharing "timeless ideas" — those that are valuable, undiscussed by others, and long-term relevant — arguing that such content offers greater investment value than frequently explaining quarterl
PAR’s Path to $80 Redux — Godot Finally Arrives
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This Voss Capital research report's core theme is bullish on the investment value of PAR Technology Corporation (PAR), believing it is at a performance inflection point. The report's core view is that, with the deployment of important customers such as Burger King (expected to start in Q2 2024), the
Bonsai Partners Q4 2023 Letter
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This report discusses the performance of the Bonsai Partners Fund in the fourth quarter of 2023 and for the full year. The core view is that the portfolio has stabilized, turnover has significantly decreased, and the "leaky bucket" problem has been successfully addressed. Key conclusions: In Q4 2023
Bireme Capital
British American Tobacco
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This report discusses Bireme Capital's rationale for investing in British American Tobacco (BAT). The core thesis is that tobacco stocks like BAT are mispriced due to "social conformity bias" driven by European ESG investment trends. At a current free cash flow multiple of just 8x, the valuation is
Paving the Road to Alpha — Long CRH
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This Voss Capital research report focuses on the investment value of building materials giant CRH. The core argument is that while the market is overly fixated on tech sectors like AI, CRH, as a leading aggregates and infrastructure company in Europe and the U.S., is significantly undervalued. The r
Bonsai Partners Q3 2023 Letter
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Bonsai Partners Fund posted a net return of -2.8% in the third quarter of 2023, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index fell by 3.3% over the same period. Since its inception in October 2018, the fund has achieved an annualized net return of 24.9%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 11.3%. The r
Voss Capital
Chip Wars — Summary of 'Chips Wars' by Chris Miller, the History of the Semi Conductor Industry and the Potential Geopolitical (and Investing) Implications
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This report discusses Voss Capital's analysis of the semiconductor industry through a geopolitical lens, inspired by reading the book Chip Wars. The core argument is that semiconductors—especially advanced logic chips produced by TSMC—have become national strategic assets, akin to "the new oil." Whi
Bonsai Partners Q2 2023 Letter
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Bonsai Partners Fund posted a net return of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2023, underperforming the S&P 500's total return of 10.2% over the same period. The report notes that U.S. market valuations have risen, with the S&P 500's equity risk premium approaching historical lows, reducing the compensa
Software Siphon — An Updated Look at Stock Comp in Software
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Voss Capital's research indicates that stock-based compensation (SBC) as a percentage of revenue in the software industry remains at historically high levels, which has led to a broad decline in the "true" Rule of 40 (adjusted EBITDA margin minus SBC margin plus expected NTM revenue growth). Revenue
Bireme Capital
Airtel Africa
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This report discusses the investment value of Airtel Africa, with the core thesis that this telecommunications company operating in sub-Saharan Africa is severely undervalued by the market. The report points out that its market capitalization is approximately $5.5 billion, with a P/E ratio below 9x
Horizon Kinetics
Royalties as an Asset Class
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Evolution and structure of royalties as an investment vehicle — an unconventional hard asset with inflation protection.
本研究报告探讨了版税作为一种投资工具的演变和结构，分析了其作为一种非传统的硬资产和通胀保护工具的特点。
Bonsai Partners Q1 2023 Letter
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Bonsai Partners' first-quarter 2023 investor letter shows the fund returned 7.7% net, outperforming the S&P 500 total return index (6.1%). The report reviews the 27.9% net annualized return since inception in October 2018 and emphasizes that macro forecasting is useless; instead, one should "prepare
TCI Fund Management
TCI 致 Cellnex 董事会函
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TCI Fund Management, on behalf of shareholders holding more than 3% of Cellnex Telecom, has sent a letter to the Cellnex board, planning to propose at the annual general meeting the removal of Chairman Bertrand Kan, Directors Peter Shore and Alexandra Reich, and the appointment of TCI's Jonathan Amo
TCI 致 Airbus 董事会函
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TCI Fund, as a long-term shareholder holding over 3% of Airbus shares (valued at over EUR 4 billion), strongly urges the company to immediately terminate negotiations with Atos regarding the acquisition of a 29.9% minority stake in Evidian. TCI believes Evidian is a low-quality company with 60,000 e
TCI Fund Management
TCI 致 Alphabet 董事会函
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# TCI Corporate Engagement — Alphabet TCI Fund Management 就 Alphabet 的公司治理、资本配置等议题与管理层展开积极互动，公开信如下： - **20th January 2023** (2023-01-20)
Bonsai Partners Q4 2022 Letter
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Bonsai Partners Fund, LP posted a net return of -1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to a 7.6% gain in the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the same period; for the full year, the net return was -27.3%, versus an 18.1% decline in the S&P 500, marking the fund's largest annual drawdown since
Super cycle or capital cycle?
Author: Luke Bridgeman
Hosking Partners' report explores whether the global DRAM memory semiconductor industry is in a "super cycle" or a "capital cycle." It focuses on the three dominant players—Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics—whose stock prices have risen 5x to 8x over the past 12 months, pushing their market
Bireme Capital
Stocktober #3: Ziff Davis
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This report analyzes the investment value of Ziff Davis (ZD), with the core view that its current stock price is undervalued. The report points out that since 2014, ZD has acquired underperforming websites at low prices (such as acquiring Mashable, once valued at $250 million, for $50 million, and a
Bonsai Partners Q3 2022 Letter
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Bonsai Partners' third-quarter 2022 investor letter shows that the fund returned +8.3% net in Q3, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index fell -4.9% over the same period; year-to-date net return is -26.4% (S&P: -23.9%). The report notes that the current macro environment (interest rates, inflation, sup
The Big Long? A Deep Dive on US Housing (Part 6) — What Drives Home Prices and Buy vs Rent
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Voss Capital provides an objective analysis of the U.S. housing market, noting that current home price trends are subject to divergent views between bears and bulls. The bears emphasize that the median home price in Q2 2022 rose 36.5% from Q2 2019, existing home sales fell 5.9% month-over-month in J
Extreme Visibility — Update on a Top Long Idea: Extreme Networks (EXTR)
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Voss Capital's research report focuses on Extreme Networks (EXTR), arguing that its current valuation is at a historical low while business visibility is unprecedented. The core thesis: EXTR's order backlog is 25 times pre-pandemic levels (reaching $513 million), SaaS revenue has grown 40% year-over
Stock Comp in Software — Hidden Margin Deterioration?
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Voss Capital research notes that software stocks' EV/Sales multiple has compressed from 4.7x in March to the current 3.2x, while expected revenue growth remains at historical highs, but adjusted EBITDA margins have stagnated, and the traditional Rule of 40 stays at 34%. The report reveals two hidden
Bonsai Partners Q2 2022 Letter
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The Bonsai Partners Fund posted a net return of -17.3% in Q2 2022, underperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index's -16.1%; year-to-date net return stands at -32.0%, versus the S&P 500's -20.0%. Since inception (October 2018), the fund's annualized net return is 29.4%, far exceeding the S&P 500's 10
The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 5) — Part 5 – Affordability
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Voss Capital conducted an in-depth analysis of the root causes and impacts of the supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. housing market. The report notes that the rapid rise in home prices since 2020 was not driven by speculation, but rather a result of persistently low housing starts after 2009 and ac
Garage Sale — A Hidden Play on Commercial Construction and Home Improvement With 150% Upside
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Voss Capital's research report focuses on Griffon Corp. (GFF), noting that it is not a pure-play on residential housing stocks but rather an investment through a combination of building products and home improvement businesses. The core thesis is that GFF is an inefficient mini-conglomerate with a h
The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 4) — Part 4 – What Slow Down? Recent Commentary from Builders and Building Product Companies
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Voss Capital, based on its long-term tracking of the U.S. housing market and industry data, refutes the pessimistic views in the market that the U.S. housing market is about to collapse. The report's core argument is that despite rising interest rates, demand remains strong and is far from the level
The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 3) — Part 3 – Homeowner Balance Sheets and Historical Declines in Home Values
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Voss Capital conducts an in-depth analysis of the supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. housing market, with a particular focus on homeowner balance sheets and historical home price declines. The core thesis is that despite calls for a market crash, current homeowner financials are robust, making a lar
The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 2) — Part 2 - What’s Driving Demand?
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Voss Capital research indicates that employment growth in U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) is highly correlated with housing shortages (r-squared=0.47), and net migration flows accounted for 60% of the reduction in for-sale homes among the Top 50 MSAs between July 2020 and June 2021. State
Bonsai Partners Q1 2022 Letter
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Bonsai Partners Fund's net return for the first quarter of 2022 was -17.8%, while the S&P 500 total return index declined -4.6% over the same period. The report reviewed the fund's performance since its inception in October 2018, with an annualized net return of 39.3%. Founder Andrew noted that the
The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 1) — Part 1 - Where Is The Inventory?
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Voss Capital conducted an in-depth analysis of the U.S. housing market, with the core view that the current market is not a bubble but the result of long-term under-supply. Since the 2007 peak, the U.S. has experienced 13 years of single-family home construction below the historical average (annual
The State of Software — Is Profitability the New Growth?
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Voss Capital research points out that valuation multiples of software companies have plummeted from a median of nearly 9.0x revenue in August 2021 to less than 5.0x currently, with the average revenue multiple nearly halving. Although the market generally believes that high-valuation stocks (such as
Bonsai Partners Q4 2021 Letter
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Bonsai Partners Fund generated a gross return of 4.8% and a net return of 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index rose 11.0% over the same period. For the full year 2021, the fund posted a gross return of -13.5% and a net return of -13.7%, compared to the S&P 500's g
Bonsai Partners Q3 2021 Letter
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Bonsai Partners' Q3 2021 investor letter indicates that the fund posted a net return of -13.3% for the third quarter, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index rose 0.6% over the same period; year-to-date net return stands at -18.1%, versus the S&P 500's return of 15.9%. The report uses the metaphor of "
Bonsai Partners Q2 2021 Letter
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Bonsai Partners' Q2 2021 investor letter notes that the portfolio's gross return was -4.5% and net return was -4.8%, while the S&P 500 rose 8.5% over the same period. As of quarter-end, total exposure was 88% and cash was 12%. The report also discusses the impact of "groupthink" on investment decisi
Inflation Series (Part 3) — Will the 2020s US end up like 1920s Germany?
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Voss Capital’s research report examines whether the United States could repeat the hyperinflation experienced by Germany’s Weimar Republic. The core view argues that, although the U.S. and Japan differ significantly in policy and culture, making deflation unlikely, the risk of runaway inflation warr
Inflation Investigation (Part 2) — Why the US (Probably) Isn't the Next Japan
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Voss Capital research series uses Japan as a reference to analyze the current inflation and low-interest-rate environment in the United States. The core view is that after Japan’s asset bubble burst in the 1990s, commercial real estate prices collapsed by 87% (the U.S. fell only 33% in 2008), the no
Roaring Eighties — The Japanese Bubble during the 1980s
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Voss Capital’s research report uses Japan’s 1980s bubble as a case study, arguing that its essence was a politically driven asset bubble. The core thesis is that, in order to sustain economic growth, the Japanese government systematically fostered the three elements of a bubble—asset tradability, lo
Inflation Investigation (Part 1) — Intro to Inflation and Why Common Leading Indicators Aren't Always Reliable
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Voss Capital explores the possibility of inflation returning and its impact on the stock market. The core view is that although CPI has not yet shown inflation, the Fed allowing an overshoot of the 2% target and leading indicators spiking could change the situation. If inflation expectations push up
Bonsai Partners Q1 2021 Letter
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Bonsai Partners reported a first-quarter 2021 return of -0.6% (gross) and -0.8% (net), while the S&P 500 Total Return Index rose 6.2% over the same period. Total exposure at quarter-end was 70.1%, with cash holdings of 29.9% (a temporary result of end-of-quarter position sales). From inception in Oc
The Animation Boom — A Brief Look Back at the Early Days of Disney, the Current Cartoon Renaissance and the Future of Thunderbird Entertainment (TBRD)
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Voss Capital’s research report reviews how Walt Disney, in the early days, revolutionized the animation industry through a relentless pursuit of perfection, technological innovation (such as sound synchronization and physical simulation), and the financial support of his brother Roy. It emphasizes t
Bonsai Partners Q4 2020 Letter
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Bonsai Partners’ Q4 2020 investor letter disclosed that the portfolio generated a gross return of 36.0% (net 32.3%) in Q4, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index’s 12.1%. For the full year, gross return was 275.3% (net 247.0%), far exceeding the benchmark’s 18.4%. Gross exposure
Bonsai Partners Q3 2020 Letter
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Bonsai Partners achieved a gross return of 70.6% (net return 63.3%) in Q3 2020, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 8.9%; year-to-date gross return is 179.3% (net 167.0%), versus the S&P 500's mere 5.6% over the same period. The largest position, Redbubble, benefited from the pandemic, resulti
Bonsai Partners Q2 2020 Letter
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Bonsai Partners achieved a 109.8% gross return (101.8% net return) in Q2 2020, far exceeding the S&P 500's 20.5% for the same period. Year-to-date, the portfolio's gross return is 63.9% (net return 57.4%), while the S&P 500 declined 3.1%. As of quarter-end, the portfolio's gross exposure was 91.3%,
Bonsai Partners Q1 2020 Letter
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Bonsai Partners' Q1 2020 investor letter states that the portfolio's net return was -22.0% (with gross exposure of 78.4% and cash of 21.6%), slightly underperforming the S&P 500's -19.6%. Since inception, the portfolio's net return is -0.1%, outperforming the S&P 500's -3.8%. The main performance dr
Bonsai Partners
Bonsai Partners Q4 2019 Letter
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Bonsai Partners reported a net return of 56.4% for the full year 2019 (28.1% since inception), compared to the S&P 500's gain of 31.5%. The fourth quarter performance was relatively weak, driven by two factors: the fund's average position was only 60.1% (cash accounted for 39.9%, versus the historic
Bonsai Partners Q3 2019 Letter
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Bonsai Partners disclosed in its Q3 2019 investor letter: the portfolio generated a net return of 60.3% in the first nine months (31.3% net return since inception), while the S&P 500 returned 20.4% over the same period (9.6% since inception). The portfolio currently holds 75% in equities and 25% in
Bonsai Partners Q2 2019 Letter
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Bonsai Partners' Q2 2019 investor letter reported that its portfolio delivered a gross return of 50.1% and a net return of 46.9% for the quarter, far exceeding the S&P 500's 4.3%. Since inception, the gross return stands at 30.9% and the net return at 27.7%, compared to the S&P 500's 7.7%. Core thes
Bonsai Partners Q1 2019 Letter
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Bonsai Partners’ Q1 2019 investor letter reports a gross return of 6.1%, significantly trailing the S&P 500’s 13.7% gain, primarily due to an average position of only about 40% during the period and approximately 50% at quarter end, with cash failing to appreciate alongside the rising market. For th
Bonsai Partners Q4 2018 Letter
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Bonsai Partners' first quarterly performance report after its inception in Q4 2018 shows that the fund's Gross Return was -17.9%, compared to the S&P 500's return of -10.4% over the same period, primarily due to a sharp decline in the share price of its largest holding, Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN). D